Carnegie Politika Podcast hosted by Alex Gabuev.
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How Are Russia and Ukraine Adapting to the Kursk Incursion?
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In August, the Ukrainian armed forces managed to pull off an incursion into Russian territory. Unlike previous forays executed by small paramilitary groups, the incursion into Russia's Kursk region appears to be more strategic and serious. Russia was forced to retreat, leaving behind a lot of conscripts who were taken as prisoners of war by the Ukr…
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NATO at 75: Ukraine, Russia, and the Future of European Security
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40:53
Russia’s unjustified aggression against Ukraine has revitalized NATO, and this new energy was on display at the recent 75th anniversary summit of the alliance. While there were some long-term decisions to boost European deterrence against the Russian threat, other key questions were left unanswered. Can Ukraine become a full member of the alliance?…
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Arc of Instability: How to Survive as an “In-Between” European State
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The war in Ukraine has left a group of “in-between” European countries more vulnerable and insecure than ever before. These countries—Armenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Moldova, and Serbia—find themselves in what we have termed an “arc of instability” between Russia and the European Union.Von Rosa Balfour, Thomas de Waal, Alexander Gabuev
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What's Happening Between Russia and North Korea?
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Putin has visited North Korea for the first time in 24 years. The visit reflects the two countries' deepening alignment amid Pyongyang's active support for Russia's aggression against Ukraine. Andrei Lankov provides insights into the signals being exchanged between Moscow and Pyongyang, and addresses the question of whether a real alliance might be…
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What Impact Will Russia's New Defense Minister Have in Ukraine?
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Following his fifth presidential inauguration, Russian President Vladimir Putin has approved a new government. The most significant change is to the Defense Ministry, which will now be led by Andrei Belousov, a Keynesian economist and former deputy prime minister. Coming amid the ongoing war in Ukraine and notable arrests within the Defense Ministr…
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Is Putin Prioritizing Regime Survival Over Fighting Terrorism?
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32:05
Responsibility for the March 22 terrorist attack at the Crocus City concert hall has been claimed by the Afghanistan-based Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K), and most of the suspects are migrants from Tajikistan. Yet Russian authorities remain steadfast in their insistence that Ukraine and "Western forces" orchestrated the indiscriminate murder of ov…
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Is Western Apathy Trapping Belarus in Russia's Embrace?
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Four years ago, Belarus reached a point of no return in its delicate balancing act between Russia and the West. Desperate for support, Alexander Lukashenko's regime has become increasingly reliant on Moscow since 2020. Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has further solidified Belarus's position as a close satellite state. What does this mean f…
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Post-Election Russia Resembles the Soviet Union
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Russia’s presidential election this month shattered all previous records, with president Putin "securing" an unprecedented 87.3 percent of the vote. The critical question now is: how will Putin’s re-election be perceived, both domestically and internationally? Is he a legitimate leader in the eyes of Russians and the global community?…
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Podcast: Navalny's Legacy for the Russian Opposition
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The sudden death of the jailed Russian opposition leader was a shock, though it was not unexpected. For the last decade, Navalny had been the most vocal critic and opponent of Putin's regime, while his Anti-Corruption Foundation had supporters in almost all Russian regions and cities. Only Navalny was able to consolidate people across Russia in wav…
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What’s the Secret of the Russian Economy’s Resilience?
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24:58
The Western sanctions imposed against Russia in response to its full-blown invasion of Ukraine were not just designed to put a cost on Moscow’s actions, but also to stem the flow of materials and money enabling it to wage war. Why did this hope fall short, and how is Putin’s wartime economy faring as we approach 2024 and the second anniversary of t…
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Learned Indifference: How Russian Society Has Gotten Used to War
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Since Russia launched its "special military operation" against Ukraine, Russian society has adapted to living amid conflict. Despite initial predictions that public outrage would topple the regime, the majority of Russians have consolidated around the Kremlin, viewing it as a defender against a perceived threat from the West. How accurate are warti…
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What Does Russia Stand to Gain From the Israel-Hamas War?
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It's been more than a month since Hamas attacked Israel, reigniting the Middle East crisis once again and switching the focus of other political players to the region. Is Russia benefiting from the escalation in the conflict? How is it affecting the war in Ukraine? And what are the long-term consequences for Russia's position as a global player in …
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What Does the Post-Prigozhin Russian Regime Look Like?
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Just two months ago, Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the infamous Wagner mercenary army, dominated global headlines after his short-lived mutiny against the Russian military and political leadership. Until recently, Prigozhin was considered a leading Russian politician, with some even believing he could rival President Vladimir Putin. Yet his highly sus…
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The Vilnius Summit: A Turning Point for NATO and Ukraine
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Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Sophia Besch, a fellow at the Carnegie Europe Program, and Eric Ciaramello, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia and Eurasia Program, to discuss the outcomes of the NATO summit in Vilnius. The recent NATO summit in Vilnius is being labeled by many as a historic moment for the future of European security, and …
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Is the End in Sight in the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict?
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Alex Gabuev is joined by Tom de Waal, a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, and Anna Ohanyan, a nonresident senior scholar at Carnegie’s Russia and Eurasia program, to discuss developments in and around the contested region of Nagorno-Karabakh. As the long-running conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh appears to be inching tow…
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What’s Behind Xi Jinping’s Visit to Moscow?
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Why did Xi Jinping choose to visit Moscow at a time when Russia has been ostracized by the global community for its invasion of Ukraine? Did both sides get what they wanted from the visit? Has Russia resigned itself to being the junior partner in this burgeoning relationship? What is China’s agenda in putting forward a peace plan for Ukraine? Podca…
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Who’s Winning the Energy War Between Russia and the West?
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Podcast host Alexander Gabuev and Sergei Vakulenko, a new non-resident senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, discuss the energy dimension of the ongoing battle between Russia and the West. How successful was Russia’s plan to wreak economic havoc in Europe by choking gas supplies? Can Europe breathe a sigh of relief, or will Russian energy blackm…
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What Next in Russia’s War Against Ukraine?
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Podcast host Alexander Gabuev discusses what the next few months may have in store together with Dara Massicot, senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation, and Mark Galeotti, CEO of Mayak Intelligence. As the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine approaches, Ukraine is set to receive Western battle tanks, while Russia is believed …
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Watching Russia From Afar
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As we relaunch our Russia-focused podcast under the Carnegie Politika brand, FT correspondent Polina Ivanova and economist-in-exile Sergei Guriev join podcast host Alexander Gabuev to discuss how access to both data and sources has changed since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and whether people inside the Russian government itself also have a poorer…
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What’s Happening in Kazakhstan?
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34:37
This podcast episode focuses on the recent upheaval in Kazakhstan and what to expect moving forward. What and who was behind the recent unrest in Kazakhstan? What was the role of Russia? What will become of former president Nursultan Nazarbayev’s family, and what are the implications for other former Soviet countries? Podcast host Alexander Gabuev …
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Can Digital Sovereignty Ever Be More Than a Myth in Russia?
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What are the roots and drivers of the digital sovereignty narrative in Russian politics? Is there any Russian alternative to foreign 5G technology? How successful is Moscow’s import substitution policy in telecom hardware and software? Is the specter of sanctions against 5G equipment and other civilian telecom software a real threat, or a myth spre…
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China’s Nuclear Expansion
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25:06
What are the driving forces and goals behind China’s nuclear build-up? Should the ongoing U.S.-Russian arms control talks take into account Chinese progress? And does China’s refusal to take part in those talks render them meaningless? Podcast host Alexander Gabuev is joined by Tong Zhao, a senior fellow in Carnegie’s Nuclear Policy Program, and El…
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What’s the Kremlin's Strategy on the European Energy Crunch?
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32:52
Is the German regulator’s suspension of the certification process for Nord Stream 2 technical, or political? Why isn’t Gazprom cashing in while prices are so high, by sending additional gas to Europe? How does the Russian gas giant plan to deal with the global green energy transition? Podcast host Alexander Gabuev is joined by Katja Yafimava, a sen…
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How Has Coronavirus Transformed International Relations and Russia’s Foreign Policy?
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The pandemic has failed to bring geopolitical rivals together, but has it created new divisions, or merely amplified existing disagreements? And have any lessons been learned for dealing with other global challenges, like climate change? Podcast host Alexander Gabuev is joined by Kadri Liik, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign…
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Dissecting the State Duma Elections
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Podcast host Alexander Gabuev is joined by Elizaveta Fokht, a reporter with the BBC Russian Service, and Andrew Roth, Moscow correspondent for The Guardian, to discuss the outcome of the recent elections for the State Duma. Will the entrance of new parties into the Duma make life difficult for the Kremlin? Why have we seen no real protest movement …
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What Are the Implications of the Afghanistan Crisis for Central Asia?
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Nargis Kassenova, a senior fellow at the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies’ program on Central Asia, and Temur Umarov, a research consultant at Carnegie Moscow Center, join podcast host Alexander Gabuev to discuss how Central Asian governments have reacted to the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, what their priorities are, and whether an…
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A Closer Look at Russia’s New National Security Strategy
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How does the latest version of Russia’s National Security Strategy differ from the last one, released in 2015? Does the inclusion in it of environmental issues mean that this is finally a priority for Russia? Why does the strategy fail to address the growing rivalry between China and the United States? Podcast host Alexander Gabuev is joined by Dmi…
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Where Will the Crackdown in Belarus End?
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“Repression is spreading like gas in a room: as long as there’s space there, it’s going to expand.” What’s Alexander Lukashenko’s game plan in Belarus? Could the West have done more when protests broke out last year, and does it have any tools to impact the situation there now? Is there any alternative to Lukashenko that would be acceptable to Russ…
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What’s the Point of the Latest U.S. Sanctions Against Russia?
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Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Andrey Movchan, a nonresident scholar in the Economic Policy Program at the Carnegie Moscow Center, and Maria Shagina, a postdoctoral fellow at the Center for Eastern European Studies at the University of Zurich, to discuss the impact of Western sanctions on the Russian economy. After eight years of Western san…
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Russia and the Indo-Pacific
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In the wake of the first summit of the Quad countries (the United States, Japan, Australia, and India), this episode of the podcast focuses on the grouping’s scope, its cooperation with other nations, Russia’s significance in the region, and whether the rapprochement between Moscow and Beijing is impacting the long-established relationship between …
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Has Russia’s COVID Vaccine Gotten Lost In Politics?
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Is Russia’s Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine as successful as the Kremlin claims? Are political considerations really preventing it from getting approval in Western countries? Why is the vaccination rate so low in Russia, and why didn’t Putin get vaccinated sooner? Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Henry Foy, Moscow bureau chief of the Financial T…
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Is There Any Hope for Russia-Japan Relations Without Abe?
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How will Russian-Japanese relations be affected by the departure of Japan’s longtime prime minister, Shinzo Abe? What drove his policy of active engagement of Russia, and will that policy continue under his successor? What potential remains for cooperation? Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Taisuke Abiru to discuss these issues and more.…
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What's Europe’s Strategy for Managing China and Russia?
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Alex Gabuev is joined by Janka Oertel, director of the Asia program at the European Council on Foreign Relations, to discuss changing attitudes in Europe toward China and Russia, and the evolving relationship between Moscow and Beijing.Von CarnegiePolitika.org
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Managing the Great-Power Competition Between Russia and the U.S.
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51:28
What are the main risks from the current state of competition between Moscow and Washington? Is there a pragmatic agenda on which both sides are interested in cooperating? What tools can be used to safely manage this great-power competition? Carnegie Moscow Center director Dmitri Trenin and Thomas Graham, a distinguished fellow at the U.S. Council …
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Are Russia’s Protests a Serious Threat to the Kremlin?
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29:04
How significant are the mass protests that swept Russia last Saturday and look set to be repeated this weekend? Has the Kremlin lost the battle for people's minds? And how much are these protests really about the opposition leader Alexei Navalny? Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Arkady Ostrovsky, Russia editor at The Economist.…
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Central Asia: Between China and Russia
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28:23
Will China be able to replace Russia as a security provider in Central Asia? What does China bring to the region that Russia has not, and what role is there for Europe and the West there? Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by his Carnegie colleague Temur Umarov and Niva Yau Tsz Yan, a Eurasia Program fellow at the U.S. Foreign Policy Research Insti…
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How Has Coronavirus Altered the Debate on Digital Surveillance?
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26:51
Has the hyping of foreign cyber influence in recent years overshadowed the need to address domestic disinformation? What would a democratic alliance on data regulation look like, and what should its core principles be? Is there a place for authoritarian countries like Russia in that alliance? Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Marietje Schaake, …
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What (If Anything) Does Russia Expect From Biden?
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23:39
Most new U.S. administrations are greeted with hopes for a new era in U.S.-Russian relations, but does anyone in Russia expect anything positive to come of a Biden presidency? Will a more predictable White House mean fewer or more sanctions against Russia? Elena Chernenko, a special correspondent for Kommersant, and Andrew Weiss, vice president for…
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What’s In Store for North Korea After U.S. Elections?
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28:22
It’s been relatively quiet on the Korean Peninsula for the past two years, but is this the calm before the storm? What will North Korea do to ensure it remains a U.S. foreign policy priority if Joe Biden wins the U.S. election? What impact has the coronavirus pandemic had on Kim Jong Un’s regime? And how have North Korea’s relations with China gone…
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Tipping Point in the Karabakh Crisis: What Next?
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22:48
If diplomacy fails to end the unfolding humanitarian catastrophe in Nagorno-Karabakh, what’s next for the troubled region? Turkey escalated the conflict; now can it be the one to deescalate it? And will Turkey’s intervention affect Russian-Turkish cooperation in other parts of the world? Podcast host Alexander Gabuev discusses these questions and m…
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What Does the Future Hold for Belarus?
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Podcast host Alexander Gabuev is joined by Yevgeny Preigerman, founder and director of the Minsk Dialogue Council on International Relations; Nataliya Vasilyeva, Moscow correspondent for The Telegraph; and Oksana Antonenko, director of the Global Political Risk team at the UK-based Control Risk consultancy and a member of the EU-Russia Expert Netwo…
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Russian Foreign Policy in a Post-Pandemic World
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The coronavirus pandemic has only intensified the rivalry between the United States and China, hastening the advent of a new era of bipolarity. How can Russia maintain equilibrium and avoid being drawn into the U.S.-China confrontation as a junior partner of China? Will the collapse of oil prices and subsequent loss of revenue force Russia to rein …
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How Effective Is Digital Surveillance In the Fight Against the Coronavirus?
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China deployed an array of digital surveillance tools as part of its response to the coronavirus outbreak. Russia is trying to use similar technology but with mixed results. The rapid embrace of such tools is sparking an international debate about the impact on privacy and the need for protections and oversight. In this episode of the Carnegie Mosc…
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How Deep Are China's Roots in Russia's Far East?
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Russia-China relations get a lot of coverage in Moscow, but what’s the view from Vladivostok in Russia’s Far East? Carnegie’s Alex Gabuev talks to Ivan Zuenko, an expert on the Sino-Russian relationship, about the real scale of the Chinese presence in Russia’s Far East, attitudes among both Chinese and Russian people to one another, the Belt and Ro…
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Coronavirus and the Battlefields of the US-China Trade War
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Could Coronavirus actually be a boost for the Chinese government? Is it better to be spied on by China or the United States? Is Russia really serious about its pivot to Asia? Carnegie’s Alex Gabuev and The Financial Times’ Asia editor Jamil Anderlini discuss the impact of Coronavirus on the Russian economy, how the virus is influencing the ongoing …
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What's It Like to Be a Foreign Correspondent in Russia?
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In this episode of the Carnegie Moscow Center podcast, host Alex Gabuev talks to two foreign correspondents currently based in Moscow. Robyn Dixon recently returned to Russia as head of the Washington Post Moscow bureau, having previously worked here for eight years through 2003. Our other guest is Max Seddon of the Financial Times, who has been wo…
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Is Russia Late to the Chinese Gas Market Party?
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30:27
In December, Gazprom launched its 8,000-km Power of Siberia gas pipeline to China. Sergei Kapitonov, an energy analyst at the Skolkovo School of Management, talks to Carnegie Moscow Center's Alexander Gabuev about the timing of the launch and the prospects and risks of delivering Russian gas to a single buyer.…
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Five Years After Crimea, How Is Russian Trade Doing?
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35:21
Changes in foreign trade—the backbone of economic prosperity for Putin’s Russia—reflect the giant shifts in Moscow’s relations with the outside world. Five years after the annexation of Crimea, Russia is moving away from the West and trading less with the EU, while increasing the share of its trade with Asia, in particular with China. Alex Gabuev, …
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How Is Russia's Pivot to Asia Working Out?
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31:37
In September 2014, following the annexation of Crimea, the outbreak of war in the Donbas, and the introduction of the first Western sanctions against Russia, the Kremlin announced a "pivot to Asia." Five years on, what's the outcome of this policy? Have Russia and China really formed a new, much stronger partnership? Alex Gabuev, a senior fellow an…
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