Erdogan's anti-Israel rhetoric falters as Turkey loses regional clout

International report

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has used the United Nations General Assembly to criticise Israel and its Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. But as Erdogan tries to lead opposition to Israel, Turkey is finding itself increasingly sidelined in the region.

At the UN, Erdogan again compared Israel to Hitler, calling for an "international alliance of humanity" to stop Israel as it did Hitler 70 years ago. However, such fiery rhetoric is finding a shrinking audience.

"It's more conveying a message to their own base", said Sezin Oney of the Turkish news portal Politikyol. "There isn't an audience that really sees Turkey or Erdogan as the vanguard of Palestine rights anymore. On the contrary, that ship sailed long ago."

Erdogan attempted to boost his image as a powerful regional player by meeting with the Lebanese and Iraqi Prime Ministers on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. But Ankara is increasingly finding itself sidelined as a regional diplomatic player.

"Ankara's pro-Hamas approach has only marginalised Turkey in the international arena," said international relations expert Selin Nasi of the London School of Economics. "So we see Egypt and Qatar receiving credits for their roles as mediators. And Turkey is locked out of international diplomatic efforts."

Since Hamas's 7 October attack on Israel and Israel's subsequent Gaza campaign, Ankara has tried to position itself among international mediating efforts to end the fighting, given its close contacts with Hamas.

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Mediation efforts

"Turkey was asked by the United States to speak with Hamas people", said international relations expert Soli Ozel at Vienna's Institute for Human Studies.

However, Ozel says the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran denied Erdogan his diplomatic trump card.

"One big blow to Turkey has been the murder of Haniyeh, with which Turkey did have very close relations. For all I know, he may even have had a Turkish passport", said Ozel.

"And I really don't think Turkey has any relations or contacts with Yahya Sinwar, who is officially and effectively the leader of Hamas".

With Israel already alienated by Erdogan's fiery rhetoric along with Turkey imposing an Israeli trade embargo, Gallia Lindenstrauss of Tel Aviv's National Security Studies says Turkey has nothing to offer.

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"There are two main mediators in this conflict: Egypt and Qatar. They're the two actors that have leverage over Hamas. Turkey, despite its very open support of Hamas, has very little leverage on Hamas's decisions," said Lindenstrauss.

"So Turkey is not effective – it doesn't have the money to push Hamas in a certain direction, it doesn't have the political leverage over Hamas to push it in the right direction. In practice ...Turkey is not very efficient.

"So I don't think it's a mistake that Turkey is not part of this [mediation] process."

Ankara has been quick to point out that existing mediation efforts between Hamas and Israel have achieved little, with the conflict now spreading to Lebanon.

However, some experts claim Ankara's diplomatic sidelining has a broader message of Arab countries pushing back against Turkey's involvement in the region.

"None of the Arab countries would like to get Turkey involved in this process," said international relations expert Huseyin Bagci, of Ankara's Middle East Technical University.

"Turkey could be considered by their views as the enemy of Israel, but it is artificial. The Middle East Arab-Israeli conflict since 1948 has been an Arab-Israeli conflict, not a Turkish-Israeli conflict."

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Regional ambitions

For more than a decade, Erdogan has sought to project Turkey's influence across the Middle East, often referring to the years of Ottoman rule as the halcyon days of peace and tranquillity.

But the latest Middle East war has ended such dreams, analyst Ozel said.

"The Turkish government thought that they could dominate the Middle East. They played the game of hegemony seeking, and they lost it," Ozel explained.

"When they lost it, Turkey found itself way behind [the position] it had prior to 2011 when their grandiose scheme of creating a region which would be dominated by Turkey began."

As the Israel-Hamas war threatens to escalate across the region, Erdogan's rhetoric against Israel will likely continue. But analysts warn that outside of the leader's conservative base at home, few others in the region will be receptive.