S3E27: Recession! What recession?

History Behind News Program

Have economists predicted and prevented past recessions? Barely anyone is talking about a recession now. But just a couple of months ago, it was front-page and prime-time news.

And here is an excerpt from a June 4th WSJ article: “Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal in April put the probability of a recession at some point in the next 12 months above 50%. But they have said that since October, and the recession appears no closer.” So, in other words, no one really knows, not even the experts.

To better understand the history of America's recessions their frequencies, intensities and durations, and our attempts to predict and prevent them, I spoke with Dr. Price Fishback, an APS professor of economics at Eller College of Management in the University of Arizona. Dr. Fishback is also a research affiliate at the Centre for Economic History at Australian National University, a CAGE Fellow at Warwick University, a program scholar for the Hoover Program on Regulation and the Rule of Law, a fellow at the TIAA-CREF Institute and a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, which most of us know as NBER.

He is the author of many peer-reviewed publications and books including Government and the American Economy: A New History.

To learn more about Dr. Fishback, you can visit his academic homepage, the link for which is provided in the detailed caption of this episode.

Also, you should definitely listen to my prior conversation with Dr. Fishback about the history of housing bubbles. Actually, he doesn't like the word 'bubble'. So we discussed the booms and busts. This is a fascinating history that includes the added interesting story of the home mortgage industry worked decades ago (think 5-year terms with huge balloon payments). Click here for that episode: https://bit.ly/HBN-S2E32

I hope you enjoy these episodes.

Adel

Host of the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠History Behind News⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ podcast

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