Is It Too Late To Buy Election Hedges? | Weekly Roundup

Forward Guidance

This week we discuss the short bond trade, volatility and excessive hedging, and the election probabilities. We also delve into MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin strategy, unrealized bond loss FUD, and much more. Enjoy!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:33) Path of Interest Rates

(08:01) Is the Short Long Bond Trade Overdone?

(10:46) Overdone Currency Moves

(12:53) Implied Volatility vs Realized Volatility

(16:48) The MOVE Index & Election Hedging

(20:29) Election Probability Distribution

(27:17) Ledger Ad

(28:02) Yellen & Real Interest Rates

(31:10) Inflation Resurgence

(33:18) Global Coordination

(36:01) Macro Trading vs Ideas & the Bond Trade

(39:04) The Reality of a Trump Presidency

(47:04) Bitcoin & MicroStrategy

(52:19) Tesla & The Convert Market

(55:56) Unrealized Bond Losses FUD

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.