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Is It Too Late To Buy Election Hedges? | Weekly Roundup
Manage episode 446923924 series 3300108
This week we discuss the short bond trade, volatility and excessive hedging, and the election probabilities. We also delve into MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin strategy, unrealized bond loss FUD, and much more. Enjoy!
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Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S9PUsLK1G_mqZxzYWrQ1tbEsrgTlecF7/view?usp=drive_link
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Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology.
Buy now on Ledger.com.
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(02:33) Path of Interest Rates
(08:01) Is the Short Long Bond Trade Overdone?
(10:46) Overdone Currency Moves
(12:53) Implied Volatility vs Realized Volatility
(16:48) The MOVE Index & Election Hedging
(20:29) Election Probability Distribution
(27:17) Ledger Ad
(28:02) Yellen & Real Interest Rates
(31:10) Inflation Resurgence
(33:18) Global Coordination
(36:01) Macro Trading vs Ideas & the Bond Trade
(39:04) The Reality of a Trump Presidency
(47:04) Bitcoin & MicroStrategy
(52:19) Tesla & The Convert Market
(55:56) Unrealized Bond Losses FUD
—
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
431 Episoden
Manage episode 446923924 series 3300108
This week we discuss the short bond trade, volatility and excessive hedging, and the election probabilities. We also delve into MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin strategy, unrealized bond loss FUD, and much more. Enjoy!
—
Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
—
Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S9PUsLK1G_mqZxzYWrQ1tbEsrgTlecF7/view?usp=drive_link
—
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology.
Buy now on Ledger.com.
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(02:33) Path of Interest Rates
(08:01) Is the Short Long Bond Trade Overdone?
(10:46) Overdone Currency Moves
(12:53) Implied Volatility vs Realized Volatility
(16:48) The MOVE Index & Election Hedging
(20:29) Election Probability Distribution
(27:17) Ledger Ad
(28:02) Yellen & Real Interest Rates
(31:10) Inflation Resurgence
(33:18) Global Coordination
(36:01) Macro Trading vs Ideas & the Bond Trade
(39:04) The Reality of a Trump Presidency
(47:04) Bitcoin & MicroStrategy
(52:19) Tesla & The Convert Market
(55:56) Unrealized Bond Losses FUD
—
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
431 Episoden
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