Citrini on 2024 Election Portfolio Construction And AI “Mania”

Forward Guidance

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Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

Follow Citrini on Twitter https://x.com/Citrini7

Follow Citrini on Substack https://www.citriniresearch.com/

Citrini 1-Year Anniversary Piece: https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/citrindex-one-year-anniversary

Citrini, “Election 2024: Investment Implications & Preparations”: https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/election-2024-investment-implications

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:20) How Citrini Is Thinking About Markets Right Now

(07:21) Just How Narrow Is The AI Bull Market?

(20:04) VanEck Ad

(20:44) Election 2024: Investment Implications & Preparations

(26:18) Fannie Mae and Glass Producers

(28:34) Onshoring vs. Nearshoring Stocks

(29:48) Trump Election Would Cause Epic 2s10s Steepeners

(33:41) Deficits Under Biden, Deficits Under Trump

(37:07) Trump's Aggressive Tax Policy (TCJA Tax Cuts To Expire In 2025)

(40:13) China

(46:32) Trump on Crypto

(48:15) Would The S&P 500 Perform Better Under Biden or Trump, and Why?

(54:12) Tarriff Basket

(56:05) Tarriffs on Chinese Electric Vehicles (EVs)

(58:31) Citrini on Tesla as an AI Company And As A Robotaxi Company

(01:01:40) The Hottest New Coding Language Is English

(01:06:21) Why Software and Saas Stocks Have Underperformed

(01:09:32) Margin Of Safety Has Been Extraordinarily Diminished

(01:12:43) What Are The Odds That The Top Is In For AI Stocks?

(01:19:03) China's AI Stocks

(01:34:54) Hedging For A Recession Is Pretty Straightforward Right Now

(01:37:18) Hedging Via The VIX

(01:42:34) Citrini: "I Think I'm Underweight Nvidia Relative to the S&P 500"

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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