Evan Silva’s Matchups: Week 16

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DEN @ LAC | HOU @ KC | PIT @ BAL | NYG @ ATL | DET @ CHI | CLE @ CIN | TEN @ IND | LAR @ NYJ | PHI @ WAS | ARI @ CAR | MIN @ SEA | NE @ BUF | JAX @ LV | SF @ MIA | TB @ DAL | NO @ GB

Denver @ L.A. Chargers

Team Totals: Chargers 22.5, Broncos 19.5

Broncos-Bolts profiles as a low-scoring affair on a short week pitting against each other division foes who’ve already squared off once this season (23-16 result) and over the course of the year are tied for having given up the NFL’s fewest points per game (17.6). … Any Bo Nix optimism must stem from Thursday night’s friendly weather forecast, Baker Mayfield’s big Week 15 against these same Chargers, and injuries to key Bolts defenders CB Cam Hart (concussion), SS Elijah Molden (knee), and DT Otito Ogbonnia (pelvis). The Bolts have also yielded the NFL’s 10th-most QB rush yards (322). Nix is a nifty scrambler when he commits to it. … With Jaleel McLaughlin (quad) in doubt, Javonte Williams looks back in the lead for Broncos running back usage after out-snapping Audric Estime 34 to 13 and out-touching Estime 8 to 6 in Week 15’s win over Indianapolis. In an unfriendly draw versus an unforgiving Chargers run defense, this remains a situation to avoid if McLaughlin ends up active. Williams will be playable on single-game DFS slates should McLaughlin sit.

Denver’s Week 15 passing production was abysmal in a wind-affected bout with Indy, but Courtland Sutton still hit paydirt or topped 100 yards for the sixth time in his last seven appearances and hasn’t drawn fewer than eight targets since Week 7. Similar-styled WR Mike Evans’ Week 15 demolition of the Chargers (9/159/2) plus Hart’s substandard health highlight Sutton as a strong rebound bet … The Broncos continue to deploy a Nos. 2-5 WR rotation involving Devaughn Vele, Troy Franklin, Lil’Jordan Humphrey, and Marvin Mims Jr. and a three-way TE committee made up of Nate Adkins, Lucas Krull, and Adam Trautman with minimal reason for individual optimism. I suppose I’d gamble on Vele if forced to pick.

Gutting out an accumulation of lower-body injuries he appeared to aggravate in Week 15’s blowout defeat, Justin Herbert was a total non-factor as a scrambler against the Bucs and now draws Denver on a short week. The Broncos have permitted the league’s sixth-fewest fantasy QB points, while Herbert ranks a middling 16th at the position in to-date scoring. … Albeit in largely negative (second-half) script, it’s notable that Kimani Vidal out-snapped Gus Edwards by a whopping 35-to-14 margin against the Bucs. As few running backs have been less efficient than Edwards on the season, it would not be surprising to see the Bolts saddle up Vidal as their main back on Thursday night. Vidal has obviously assumed L.A.’s passing-down role, and Denver has yielded the NFL’s third-most running back catches (74).

Ladd McConkey entered Week 15’s game questionable with shoulder and knee injuries, only to emerge with a robust 5/58/1 receiving line on seven targets and an 88% playing-time clip. McConkey is not on Week 16’s injury report. Running 67% of his patterns in the slot, McConkey will avoid elite Broncos CB Pat Surtain on the vast majority of Week 16’s snaps. … Quentin Johnston’s (ankle) uncertain health gives Josh Palmer and, to a lesser extent, D.J. Chark intrigue on single-game DFS slates. … Minus Will Dissly (shoulder) in Week 15’s loss, Stone Smartt parlayed six targets into 5/50/0 receiving against the Bucs. Dissly looks likely to sit again here. The Broncos have provided a neutral matchup for enemy tight ends.

Score Prediction: Broncos 21, Chargers 20

Saturday Football

1:00 PM ET Game

Houston @ Kansas City

Team Totals: Texans 21, Chiefs 19

Fresh off clinching the AFC South in Week 15’s win over Miami, the Texans visit Arrowhead for a projected low-scoring affair against a Chiefs team that’s allowed the NFL’s fifth-fewest points per game (18.5) and may not have Patrick Mahomes (ankle). C.J. Stroud has scored 20 standard-league fantasy points once all season and hasn’t done so since Week 4. I’m approaching Stroud as an unsafe-floor, low-ceiling two-quarterback-league option, even if Mahomes plays. … No NFL team has permitted fewer fantasy running back points than the Chiefs, rendering Joe Mixon a volume-driven RB1 bet having handled 17+ touches in eight straight appearances. It helps that Mixon has 14 catches over his last three games.

Fantasy’s overall WR3 in per-game PPR scoring, Nico Collins has carried Houston’s flailing passing offense all year. Collins’ combined stat line over his last 17 regular-season games is 100/1,569/11. He’s a fade-matchup WR1 at K.C. … I’ve resigned to chalking up Tank Dell as a boom-bust WR3/flex option each week, regardless of opponent. Dell has busted far more often than not, and nothing stands out especially positively about his Week 16 draw. … Robert Woods and John Metchie split No. 3 receiver duties right down the middle in last Sunday’s win over Miami. They’re low-probability darts at best on Saturday-only two-game slates. … Dalton Schultz is a genuinely interesting streamer with No. 2 TE Cade Stover (appendectomy) still on the shelf. In Stover’s Week 15 absence, Schultz ran more routes (29) than any Texans pass catcher and appeared on 94% of Houston’s offensive snaps.

On a short week with Mahomes ailing, the Chiefs’ quarterback decision figures to come down to a game-time call. The next man up is soon-to-be 32-year-old journeyman Carson Wentz. Regardless of his identity, Kansas City’s Week 16 signal-caller figures to be under heavy duress against a Texans defense that ranks No. 2 in the league in sacks (45). The Chiefs’ biggest weakness all season has been leaky pass protection. … Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt resumed a 50/50 split in Week 15’s win over the Browns; each back played exactly 28 snaps and handled 14 touches. The Texans play stout run defense, having held enemy RBs under 4.0 yards per carry and to the league’s fourth-fewest fantasy points on the season. I’m still willing to gamble on Pacheco’s superior explosiveness on two-game Saturday-only slates and as an upside flex option in season-long-league lineup decisions.

Box-score expectations for Chiefs pass catchers are obviously heavily contingent on the status of Mahomes. It is notable that Andy Reid’s staff has prioritized featuring Xavier Worthy lately; Kansas City’s first-round speedster has logged snap rates above 80% in consecutive games for the first time all season, accumulating 17 targets and four rushing attempts during that span. … Marquise Brown (shoulder, I.R.) still seems to be another week away. … DeAndre Hopkins has cleared 60 yards once since Week 9. He’s played under 60% of Kansas City’s offensive snaps in five straight games. … Travis Kelce and Noah Gray matter if Mahomes plays and don’t if he doesn’t. The Texans have held enemy tight ends to the league’s fifth-fewest catches (57) and fourth-fewest receiving yards (537).

Score Prediction: Chiefs 17, Texans 16

4:30 PM ET Game

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore

Team Totals: Ravens 25.5, Steelers 19.5

Russell Wilson delivering a fantasy-relevant Week 16 performance at Baltimore seems like a leap of faith considering top WR George Pickens’ hamstrung status in a rematch of division rivals that produced an 18-16 result the first time around. The Ravens have given up the NFL’s fourth-fewest QB rushing yards (194), so we can’t expect a scrambling outburst from 36-year-old Wilson. … The Ravens have stymied enemy backs to the tune of 3.4 yards per carry and the league’s seventh-fewest fantasy points this year. Pittsburgh’s backfield distribution has devolved into a 50/50 split between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, becoming a fantasy-unfriendly situation necessitating TD dependency for either to matter.

Pickens will be boom-bust playable if active against a Ravens defense still coughing up the league’s fourth-most catches (188), fourth-most yards (2,438), and third-most TDs (17) to WRs. … In Pickens’ Week 15 absence at Philadelphia, Calvin Austin stepped up to pace the Steelers in routes (24) and receiving (5/65/0) while running in two-wide sets opposite Van Jefferson. It’s notable if Pickens ends up sitting again. … Trade deadline acquisition Mike Williams still can’t carve out a substantial role. His playing-time high in six weeks as a Steeler is 35%. … Pat Freiermuth is a matchup-based TE1 streamer at Baltimore, which has coughed up the NFL’s sixth-most catches (78) and fifth-most yards (860) to tight ends.

On a short week, Steelers injuries to DE Larry Ogunjobi (groin), All-World EDGE T.J. Watt (ankle), No. 2 CB Donte Jackson (back), and SS DeShon Elliott (hamstring) soften Lamar Jackson’s matchup, especially after Jalen Hurts carved up Pittsburgh’s defense for Week 15’s overall QB4 result propelled by an aggressive pass-game plan. Even while Josh Allen has passed him as 2024’s NFL MVP favorite, Jackson remains fantasy’s overall QB1 scorer by more than a full point per game. … Derrick Henry is scoreless in three straight games but doesn’t appear to be running out of gas; he’s averaged over five yards per carry in that span. This isn’t a standout matchup, but Henry’s a virtual lock to re-find the end zone soon.

Zay Flowers is an upside WR3 play against a Pittsburgh defense yielding the NFL’s 10th-most yards to wide receivers (2,150). … Rashod Bateman has topped five targets in just two of 14 appearances this season; Flowers has done so 11 times. Bateman is a touchdown-reliant WR4/flex bet. … Mark Andrews has been fantasy’s TE6 in PPR scoring since Week 5. On the season, only nine players have more red-zone catches than Andrews’ 10. … Ravens No. 2 TE Isaiah Likely’s weekly box-score results are all over the map, but his playmaking capability has never been in doubt, and his last two receiving lines against Pittsburgh were 4/75/0 (five targets) and 2/31/1 (two targets). Likely is justifiable on Saturday-only DFS slates.

Score Prediction: Ravens 27, Steelers 16

N.Y. Giants @ Atlanta

Team Totals: Falcons 24.5, Giants 15.5

Pending health, the Giants will decide between Tommy DeVito (concussion), Drew Lock (heel/elbow), and Tim Boyle to start at quarterback against Atlanta, whose D/ST is among Week 16’s most attractive streamers. … Devin Singletary vultured a first-quarter TD in last week’s loss to Baltimore, yet Tyrone Tracy Jr. out-snapped Singletary 46 to 23. They both drew 11 touches. The Falcons have not presented a favorable running back matchup, rendering Tracy a borderline RB2/flex option in a game where the G-Men have a minuscule team total. It helps Tracy that Falcons tackle machine MLB Troy Andersen (knee) was lost to I.R. … The identity of New York’s Week 16 quarterback starter is to be determined. Regardless, Malik Nabers is averaging a whopping 12.1 targets over his last 11 appearances, while Atlanta is permitting the NFL’s fourth-most fantasy WR points. … Over his last 10 games, Wan’Dale Robinson is averaging 32.9 yards and 0.1 TDs. … Darius Slayton hasn’t hit 30 yards since Week 9. … Daniel Bellinger is sharing TE usage with Chris Manhertz and Greg Dulcich.

The Falcons are aggressively yet necessarily embracing the Wild Wild West, benching Kirk Cousins for No. 8 overall pick Michael Penix Jr. in an ideal setting at home beneath Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz dome with the Falcons favored by two scores against a Giants team that’s lost nine games in a row. New York has conceded the NFL’s third-highest completion rate (70%), fourth-most yards per pass attempt (7.7), and second-highest passer rating (106.5). Penix is an immediate starter in two-QB leagues and worth DFS tournament consideration.

Working against Penix’s upside is the likelihood the Falcons lean hard into the run against a Giants defense conceding 4.8 yards per carry and the NFL’s sixth-most fantasy RB points. Bijan Robinson is averaging 23.5 touches, 121.5 yards, and 0.8 touchdowns over Atlanta’s last eight games. … Tyler Allgeier has four catches since Week 5 and has appeared on 30% or less of Atlanta’s offensive snaps in every game since Week 8. … Box-score outlooks for Drake London, Darnell Mooney, Kyle Pitts, and Ray-Ray McCloud are to be determined with Penix at the controls. A big-armed downfield passer who shined in the Washington Huskies’ spread offense, the jury is wholly out on Penix’s impact on Falcons pass catchers.

Score Prediction: Falcons 24, Giants 10

Detroit @ Chicago

Team Totals: Lions 27, Bears 20.5

This is an eruption spot for Detroit’s offense facing a Bears defense that’s given up league highs in points (121) and total yards (1,638) over the past four games. Sunday’s Soldier Field forecast looks reasonable — 30-degree temps without precipitation — rendering Jared Goff a confident QB1 play. … In David Montgomery’s (MCL) three missed games last year, Jahmyr Gibbs averaged 23 touches for 132.3 yards and 0.7 touchdowns. New Lions No. 2 back Craig Reynolds is almost strictly a special teamer, while fourth-round rookie Sione Vaki has seven offensive touches all year. Gibbs is my overall RB1 fantasy play in Week 16.

Amon-Ra St. Brown’s historical production versus Chicago has been fairly muted with stat lines of 5/73/0, 3/21/0, 8/77/1, and 4/62/0 in these clubs’ last four dates. The Bears have allowed the NFL’s sixth-fewest fantasy WR points. … Jameson Williams has drawn at least five targets in all six games since returning from suspension. Williams is Detroit’s primary big-play receiving threat, and Chicago has coughed up the league’s fifth-most 20+ yard completions (48). … This is a plus draw for Sam LaPorta; the Bears have given up the NFL’s fifth-most yards to tight ends (866). … Tim Patrick’s snap rates over the last three games were 70%, 66%, and 81% with corresponding receiving results of 2/48/0, 6/43/2, and 4/30/1. Patrick is a WR4/flex option as the Lions’ clear-cut No. 3 wideout in a plus matchup.

Low on confidence and looking like a defeated player, Caleb Williams meets Detroit on a short week after being beaten to a pulp last Monday night by the Vikings with LT Braxton Jones (concussion), LG Teven Jenkins (calf), and backup LG Ryan Bates (concussion) in question to play. The Lions’ D/ST is a green-light start. … After missing Week 15 with a concussion, Roschon Johnson is all systems go to potentially cut into D’Andre Swift’s passing-down and short-yardage/goal-line chances. The good news is Detroit’s depleted defensive front seven can be aggressively exploited by running backs; Bills RBs James Cook, Ty Johnson, and Ray Davis combined for 285 all-purpose yards and three TDs against the Lions last week. Even with Johnson back, Swift is fully RB2 playable here.

Faith is low in Chicago’s passing-game unit at this point, but Week 16 on-paper matchups are tempting. On the season, Detroit has hemorrhaged the NFL’s second-most catches (200) and third-most yards (2,528) to enemy wide receivers, while Lions No. 1 CB Carlton Davis (broken jaw) and his top backup, Khalil Dorsey (broken leg), are both out for the year. You’re on your own trying to pinpoint Week 16’s top Bears WR beneficiary between Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and D.J. Moore, but I am proactively betting that at least one emerges with a fantasy-useful day. … Cole Kmet has accumulated four targets and 40 scoreless yards over Chicago’s last three games. He’s been removed from the TE1 radar.

Score Prediction: Lions 30, Bears 13

Cleveland @ Cincinnati

Team Totals: Bengals 27, Browns 19.5

Even against Cincy’s sieve-ish defense, box-score expectations for Browns skill players are severely diminished with Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s under-center insertion. Across 12 career appearances (three starts), DTR has a 1:7 TD-to-INT ratio and 51% completion rate. I’m fully out on Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku, and Elijah Moore. … With Nick Chubb’s (broken foot) season over, Jerome Ford offers rest-of-year league-winning upside as an explosive playmaker with an all-purpose skill set. New No. 2 back Pierre Strong Jr. is primarily a special teamer, while fellow backup D’Onta Foreman has been a healthy scratch for nearly two months. Ford was already appearing on over 50% of Cleveland’s offensive snaps on a weekly basis and now has a chance to hover in the 16-20 touches-per-game range.

Joe Burrow’s Week 16 matchup is improved by injuries to Browns No. 2 CB Greg Newsome (hamstring, I.R.) and No. 3 CB Martin Emerson (concussion), while Cleveland has coughed up the NFL’s sixth-most yards per pass attempt (7.5) and 11th-highest passer rating (95.5). Behind Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts, Burrow is fantasy’s overall QB4 on the year. … Only Saquon Barkley is outscoring Chase Brown in fantasy points among RBs since Week 9. Fully matchup-proof, Brown is averaging 24 touches a game during that span.

Triple Crown frontrunner Ja’Marr Chase leads all NFL wide receivers in catches by a seven-grab margin, in yards by 170, and touchdowns by four scores. The Browns are allowing the league’s fourth-most fantasy WR points. … Tee Higgins is a WR2 with WR1 upside facing Cleveland’s depleted secondary. The Browns have coughed up the NFL’s fourth-most 20+ yard completions (49). … Andrei Iosivas is operating as a near-full-time player in the Bengals’ offense but doesn’t command targets. He’s finished with 52 yards or fewer in all 14 games. … Mike Gesicki has been held scoreless in 13 of 14 appearances this year.

Score Prediction: Bengals 30, Browns 13

Tennessee @ Indianapolis

Team Totals: Colts 23, Titans 19

Acknowledging the Will Levis fail and turning back to Mason Rudolph, the Titans are embracing a ceiling of rest-of-season offensive mediocrity. Rudolph did deliver fantasy-point totals of 16.8, 18.5, and 21.5 over his last three appearances and is playable in two-QB settings. The Colts have yielded the NFL’s fourth-highest completion rate (69.7%), seventh-most yards per pass attempt (7.4), and 10th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. … With Tony Pollard nursing a debilitating ankle injury, Tyjae Spears seems likely to operate as Tennessee’s Week 16 lead back against a Colts defense surrendering the league’s eighth-most fantasy running back points. Spears is an RB2 with RB1 upside should Pollard sit.

Rudolph’s 2024 targets: Calvin Ridley 38; Chig Okonkwo 22; Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 16; Pollard 15; Josh Whyle 14; Tyler Boyd 12; Spears 7. … On throws from Rudolph, Ridley leads the Titans in targets, catches (20), yards (284), and first-down gains (12). Indoors at Lucas Oil Stadium, Ridley is an upside WR2/3 play. … Okonkwo’s 10-target Week 15 game feels like a fluke considering his role didn’t change and he hadn’t exceeded six targets in a game until that point. Yet it is true that Rudolph has completed nearly 70% of his passes intended for Okonkwo, and Indianapolis has yielded the NFL’s third-most FF points to tight ends. … Westbrook-Ikhine’s TD luck finally ran out, and he is now battling an ankle injury.

Fantasy’s QB10 in points per game since Week 11, Anthony Richardson is a compelling boom-bust DFS tournament gamble in Sunday’s must-win bout with Tennessee. (The Colts still have a 14% chance to make the playoffs.) The Titans have surrendered the NFL’s ninth-most QB rushing yards (332) and fourth-most QB rushing TDs (5). … In seven games since returning from his ankle injury, Jonathan Taylor is averaging 20.7 touches for 86.7 yards and 0.3 TDs behind an injury-decimated offensive line. Tennessee is holding enemy backs under 4.0 yards per carry and to the second-fewest receiving yards in the league (333).

Richardson’s 2024 targets: Michael Pittman Jr. 65; Alec Pierce 39; Josh Downs 38; Adonai Mitchell 28; Kylen Granson 19; Taylor 12; Mo Alie-Cox 10. … Pittman is scoreless since Week 6, while Tennessee has allowed the NFL’s third-fewest fantasy wide receiver points. … Pierce’s (concussion) availability is to be determined with Mitchell as the top candidate to step into three-wide sets should Pierce sit. … Downs’ box-score results have been all over the place, even as Indianapolis’ most efficient pass catcher. … The Colts’ four-man TEBC of Granson, Alie-Cox, Drew Ogletree, and Will Mallory remains a fantasy situation to avoid.

Score Prediction: Colts 23, Titans 20

L.A. Rams @ N.Y. Jets

Team Totals: Rams 24.5, Jets 21

Now in first place atop the NFC West, the Rams return from a long week following last Thursday night’s win over San Francisco to face a Jets team that coughed up point totals of 25 (JAX), 32 (MIA), 26 (SEA), 28 (IND), and 31 (ARI) in their last five games. This isn’t a defense to fear. Fantasy’s per-game QB10 over the last eight weeks, Matthew Stafford remains a fringe-starter consideration. … Kyren Williams is averaging 31 touches for 104.5 yards and 1.0 touchdowns over L.A.’s last two games. The Jets haven’t presented an overly favorable running back matchup, but Williams’ workload upside is as lofty as any RB’s in the league.

Among WRs, only Ja’Marr Chase has outscored Puka Nacua since Nacua returned from injury in Week 8. Nacua’s 17-game pace over his last eight appearances is 121/1,636/8. … Cooper Kupp is an easy bet to rebound from Week 15’s zero, partly caused by adverse weather in a game where neither the Rams nor the 49ers scored a touchdown. I’m keeping Kupp locked in as an upside WR2. … Rams No. 3 WR Demarcus Robinson is catch-less in consecutive weeks. … The Rams activated Tyler Higbee (knee) off PUP this week, entering Higbee into a TEBC already involving Colby Parkinson, Hunter Long, and Davis Allen.

Fantasy’s QB8 since Week 12’s bye, Aaron Rodgers now draws a Rams defense yielding the NFL’s third-most yards per pass attempt (7.8) and fifth-most 20+ yard completions (48). The Jets need to keep him protected, but this is a green-dot matchup for Rodgers to stay hot against an opponent that is vulnerable downfield. … Breece Hall (knee) has set consecutive season-low snap rates, amounting to touch counts of 12 and 11 with a missed game in between. Isaiah Davis played four fewer snaps than Hall in Week 15’s win, while Braelon Allen missed time with an injured back. This is a committee backfield regardless.

Davante Adams was fantasy’s per-game WR3 in Weeks 9-15. He had at least five catches in all six of those affairs. … Garrett Wilson was fantasy’s WR25 in per-game PPR scoring during that span. The Rams have given up the NFL’s eighth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. … Allen Lazard has reclaimed No. 3 WR duties in two games since returning from injury but done nothing on his chances; Lazard has one catch for 18 scoreless yards on five targets. … In place of Tyler Conklin (personal) against Jacksonville, the Jets turned to a two-way TEBC of Jeremy Ruckert and Kenny Yeboah. They combined for one reception for 12 yards.

Score Prediction: Rams 24, Jets 20

Philadelphia @ Washington

Team Totals: Eagles 24.5, Commanders 21

Successfully reheating Philly’s passing game in Week 15’s win over Pittsburgh, Jalen Hurts delivered fantasy’s QB4 result on the strength of a 125.3 QB rating while still punching in his league-leading 14th rushing TD of the season. The Commanders have yielded the NFL’s sixth-highest passer rating (98.9). Hurts is always a candidate to lead the slate in fantasy QB points. … Banged up in last Sunday’s win, Saquon Barkley resumed practicing fully this week, wasn’t even listed with an injury, and looks all systems go against an unimposing Washington run defense. Barkley needs to average 104 rushing yards over Philadelphia’s last three games to reach 2,000 for the season. I think the Eagles want to get him there.

Hyper-efficient, A.J. Brown has secured 33 of 43 targets (77%) for 502 yards (11.7 YPT) and two TDs over his last six games. I’m betting the Commanders stick Marshon Lattimore on Brown in man coverage and let the dice roll. … Eagles pass-volume concerns render DeVonta Smith a boom-bust WR3/flex play at this point. He’s cleared 40 yards in one of his last four appearances. … Dallas Goedert (knee, I.R.) fill-in Grant Calcaterra drew just one target on 37 routes in Week 15’s win over the Steelers. Goedert can’t return until Week 18.

Box-score expectations for Commanders skill players should be muted against an Eagles defense permitting a league-low 17.6 points per game. This is a rare week where I’m not particularly hot on Jayden Daniels. Only the Dolphins have conceded fewer fantasy QB points than Philly this year. … Albeit with limited ceiling expectations, Brian Robinson Jr. is RB2/flex playable with Austin Ekeler (concussion) still on I.R. after Robinson logged 24 touches on a 74% snap rate in Week 15’s win over New Orleans. Fill-in No. 2 back Jeremy McNichols touched the ball only three times. Robinson is an entirely volume-driven bet.

Terry McLaurin got lost in Eagles star rookie CB Quinyon Mitchell’s coverage in these clubs’ Week 11 date. OC Kliff Kingsbury committed to moving McLaurin around more in Washington’s three games since, and McLaurin is fantasy’s overall WR3 in per-game PPR scoring during that span. This is still a tough enough matchup to drop McLaurin from WR1/2 valuation into boom-bust WR2/3 territory. … Dyami Brown is a longshot WR4/flex sleeper against Philadelphia after logging a 78% snap rate and catching three of four targets for 30 yards in Week 15’s victory. Brown got the first crack at replacing Noah Brown (kidney, I.R.) in two-receiver sets. Olamide Zaccheaus, Jamison Crowder, and Luke McCaffrey rotated in as Washington’s Nos. 3-5 wideouts. … If Zach Ertz (concussion) can’t go, the Commanders’ next men up at tight end are Ben Sinnott and John Baker, who each played 42 offensive snaps in Week 15. They combined for a paltry two targets against the Saints.

Score Prediction: Eagles 27, Commanders 17

Arizona @ Carolina

Team Totals: Cardinals 25.5, Panthers 21.5

Cardinals-Panthers sets up as a smash spot for James Conner with No. 2 back Emari Demercado (back) on I.R. and changeup RB Trey Benson (ankle) potentially shelved. Carolina has yielded league highs in rushing yards (1,981) and rushing TDs (15) to enemy RBs and got consistently blown off the ball by a Dallas offensive line missing its starting center and right guard last week. … In four games since Arizona’s Week 11 bye, Kyler Murray is disappointingly fantasy’s QB19. The Panthers have given up the NFL’s seventh-highest completion rate (68.2%), seventh-most yards per pass attempt (7.4), and third-highest passer rating (104.0). I’m turning back to Murray as a passable QB1 play here.

No NFL team has surrendered more fantasy TE points than the Panthers. Perhaps this is the week long-overdue Trey McBride will finally hit paydirt in the passing game. On the season, McBride ranks No. 2 in targets (116), receptions (89), and yards (938) among tight ends. … Marvin Harrison Jr. has cleared 65 receiving yards in just two of 14 appearances. He got shut down by Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez in Week 15 and is at best approached as a boom-bust WR3/flex option at Carolina. … Greg Dortch set a season high with 60 yards in Week 15’s win over New England. He’s drawn three targets or fewer in eight straight games. … The Cards need to pursue more WR help this spring; Michael Wilson is best suited as a No. 3.

Bryce Young took a step back in Week 15’s loss, committing four turnovers and taking six sacks on 34 dropbacks against Dallas. Although Young has flashed competent signs, he’s gone 13 straight games without passing for 300 yards and thrown multiple touchdown passes once in that span. He hasn’t been a fantasy factor at any point in his 25-start career. … Chuba Hubbard was a Week 15 box-score bust due to negative game script in Carolina’s 30-14 defeat. Yet Hubbard’s usage remained elite, handling 88% of the Panthers’ backfield touches on 95% of their offensive snaps. Week 16 shapes up as a rebound spot at home versus an Arizona defense permitting the NFL’s 10th-most fantasy points to running backs.

Xavier Legette (groin) appears likely to miss Week 16, narrowing Carolina’s three-receiver set to Jalen Coker, Adam Thielen, and David Moore against the Cardinals. Coker paced Panthers pass catchers in Week 15 snaps (48) and receiving (4/110/1) versus Dallas, while Thielen led the unit in routes run (33) and targets (7) and is fantasy’s overall WR14 in PPR scoring over the past three weeks. Assuming Legette sits, I’m valuing Thielen as a rock-solid WR3 play and Coker as a boom-bust WR4/flex option versus Arizona. Moore has exceeded 40 receiving yards in one of 14 appearances this year. … Neither Panthers tight end — Tommy Tremble nor Ja’Tavion Sanders — has asserted himself as a viable TE1 streamer.

Score Prediction: Panthers 23, Cardinals 20

Minnesota @ Seattle

Team Totals: Vikings 22.5, Seahawks 19.5

Week 16 box-score expectations for Sam Darnold should be measured in what profiles as a low-scoring affair, as Minnesota visits the West Coast on a short week following Monday night’s win over the Bears. The Seahawks have allowed the NFL’s seventh-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.9) and 12th-fewest fantasy QB points. … Coming off a 20-touch, 106-yard, one-touchdown outing against the Bears, Aaron Jones is holding up both physically and in terms of efficiency down the stretch of his age-29/30 campaign. Seattle is surrendering the league’s 11th- most fantasy points to running backs. Jones belongs on the RB1/2 borderline.

Fantasy’s WR6 in PPR scoring over the past three weeks, Justin Jefferson is averaging 10 targets per game during that span. On the season, Jefferson still ranks No. 2 in the league in receiving yards (1,243) behind only Ja’Marr Chase (1,413) and No. 1 in 20+ yard grabs (24). … Jordan Addison is fantasy’s WR5 over the last five weeks; the Seahawks have been a middling opponent in terms of receiver scoring allowed. … T.J. Hockenson is averaging a modest 6.8 targets over his last four games, while Seattle is permitting the NFL’s 10th-most catches (77) and ninth-most yards (797) to tight ends. Hockenson is a low-end TE1 starter.

A full practice participant all week, Geno Smith will gut out the knee injury that sidelined him for the fourth quarter of last week’s loss to Green Bay. On paper, this is a discouraging matchup for Seattle’s passing offense since the Seahawks’ pass protection is among the worst in the league, while Minnesota ranks No. 4 in sacks (42) and No. 4 in QB pressure rate (26%). … The Seahawks’ backfield appears to be headed back toward a two-man RBBC of Zach Charbonnet (oblique) and Kenneth Walker (calf). The usage split will resume against Minnesota’s league-best run defense. Both Charbonnet and Walker are dicey flex plays.

Clearly taking over as Seattle’s No. 1 wideout, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is fantasy’s overall WR4 in PPR scoring since Week 9, averaging over 100 receiving yards per game during that span. JSN also happens to be the Seahawks’ best blitz-beating receiver, and no NFL team blitzes at a higher rate than Minnesota (39%). … This is also a plus on-paper spot for DK Metcalf; the Vikings have allowed NFL highs in receptions (210) and yards (2,673) to wide receivers. Metcalf is a big-play wideout, and Minnesota has served up the league’s seventh-most 20+ yard completions (46). … 32-year-old Tyler Lockett is no longer a realistic fantasy factor. … Top Seahawks receiving tight end Noah Fant is scoreless in 30 straight games.

Score Prediction: Vikings 21, Seahawks 20

New England @ Buffalo

Team Totals: Bills 30.5, Patriots 16.5

The over on New England’s 16.5-point team total is an intriguing Week 16 bet after Buffalo was pasted for Weeks 14-15 scores of 44 (Rams) and 42 (Lions). … Drake Maye has been a high-floor yet low-ceiling box-score producer since taking over as New England’s starting quarterback, banking 12+ fantasy points in nine straight games yet failing to reach 23 points in any of them. … Offensive line, game script, and committee distributions have damaged Rhamondre Stevenson’s production all season, and the Patriots are two-touchdown road underdogs here. We’re liable to see more Antonio Gibson than usual against Buffalo. … I’m continuing to throw in the towel on trying to tie an individual Patriots pass catcher to Maye. In Week 15, no Patriot topped five targets against Arizona, and none hit 50 receiving yards.

FanDuel’s MVP favorite at -900 odds, Josh Allen is on an otherworldly run over his last three starts with a combined 7:0 passing TD-to-INT ratio, six rushing scores, and zero turnovers. Buffalo has scored 35 or more points in all three games. The Patriots have coughed up the league’s seventh-most yards per pass attempt (7.4) and fifth-highest QB rating (99.2). … Week 15’s force-feeding of Bills RBs James Cook (15 touches), Ray Davis (9), and Ty Johnson (7) seemed game plan- and opponent-specific against Detroit’s injury-depleted defensive front. I’m expecting a return to normalcy featuring Cook versus New England, which enemy backs have clapped for over 4.6 yards per carry and the NFL’s fifth-most fantasy points. Johnson and Davis remain useful yet low-volume role-player backs.

With everyone healthy, pinpointing individual Bills pass catchers as upside box-score bets may prove futile. In Week 15’s win over Detroit, five separate Buffalo wide receivers (Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, Mack Hollins, Amari Cooper, Curtis Samuel) ran between 11 and 23 routes, while TEs Dalton Kincaid (21 routes) and Dawson Knox (24) shared pass-game involvement almost evenly. Allen’s pass-catcher corps is a dart-throwing contest.

Score Prediction: Bills 30, Patriots 17

Jacksonville @ Las Vegas

Team Totals: Raiders 20.5, Jaguars 19.5

Fantasy’s QB17 over the past three weeks, Mac Jones has played competently enough lately to warrant low-end two-quarterback-league consideration against a Raiders defense missing All-World EDGE Maxx Crosby. Crosby’s direct backup, Janarius Robinson, is also out after being suspended for DUI. … After Tank Bigsby appeared to grab Jacksonville’s RB reins in Week 14, Travis Etienne regained lead duties in last Sunday’s loss to the Jets, out-snapping Bigsby 61 to 22 and out-touching him 18 to 11. This has devolved into a hot-hand backfield. I’m approaching Etienne as a risky RB2/flex option and Bigsby as a low-floor flex.

Jones’ 2024 target distribution: Brian Thomas Jr. 46; Parker Washington 21; Brenton Strange 19; Etienne 15; Devin Duvernay 12; Bigsby 4. … Showing obvious on-field chemistry with Jones while being force-fed the ball, Thomas is fantasy’s overall WR7 in PPR scoring over the past three weeks. He’s a legitimate WR1 play with Jones delivering from what should be a clean, Crosby-less pocket. … Washington has caught just 10 of his 21 targets from Jones. … The Raiders have permitted the NFL’s fourth-most catches (83), fourth-most yards (908), and fourth-most touchdowns (7) to tight ends. Brenton Strange is a rock-solid TE1 starter after logging a whopping 12 targets on an 82% playing-time clip in Week 15’s defeat.

Aidan O’Connell (knee) will return under center as a locked-in two-QB-league starter in a plus environment facing a Jaguars defense yielding the NFL’s most fantasy points to signal-callers. DFS game stacks involving O’Connell, Jakobi Meyers, Brock Bowers, and Brian Thomas Jr. on the other side merit mention. … With Sincere McCormick (ankle) and Zamir White (quad) on I.R., the Raiders will resort to a blend of Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah at tailback against the Jaguars. After Mattison lost a Week 15 fumble against the Falcons, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Abdullah dominate snaps. Abdullah is a receiving back by trade, and Jacksonville has surrendered the league’s fifth-most RB catches (73).

O’Connell’s 2024 target distribution: Brock Bowers 34; Jakobi Meyers 25; Tre Tucker 13; Abdullah 10; Mattison and Michael Mayer 7. … AOC’s quicker-than-expected return to health restores confidence in a fast finish for Bowers, beginning here against a Jags defense coughing up the league’s seventh-most fantasy points to tight ends. … Meyers has drawn nine or more targets in eight of his last 10 appearances. He’s a high-floor WR2 starter with an underrated ceiling. … Tucker has plateaued as a dwarfish gadget guy unworthy of volume.

Score Prediction: Jaguars 23, Raiders 21

Editor’s Note: This Matchup was written by John Daigle, with input from Evan Silva.

San Francisco @ Miami

Team Totals: 49ers 21.5, Dolphins 23

Fresh off a long week following their Thursday night divisional loss to the Rams, Brock Purdy’s season-worst completion rate (45.2%) and yards per attempt (4.6) can be ignored for the monsoon both offenses endured (not to mention their familiarity with one another). Niners HC Kyle Shanahan already rinsed Miami for 33 points in the only game (Week 13 of 2022) he and former OC Mike McDaniel squared off including six passes of 15+ yards, and the Dolphins leaked Aaron Rodgers’ first 300-yard performance in three seasons before C.J. Stroud fell flat (as he’s done all year). I actually view the road team with the higher ceiling here, elevating Purdy as a low-end QB1. … Isaac Guerendo’s absence with foot/hamstring injuries leaves 26-year-old Patrick Taylor Jr. as Shanahan’s de facto RB1 over veteran Ke’Shawn Vaughn, whose only two carries came on the final drive against Chicago leading 38-13 with Brandon Allen under center, and sophomore Izzy Abanikanda, who has had the playbook for two weeks. Although Taylor has been under contract since April, his projected 70/30 usage is volatile enough to consider him an RB3 opposite a Fins front seven that’s strangled backfields to 4.0 yards per carry (24th) and 1.3 yards before contact per rush (27th) after their Week 7 bye; San Francisco’s pass rate could be the biggest beneficiary. Vaughn is merely a stash (against the Lions) for Week 17 in case PTJ was injured.

Enemy WR1s against Miami the past three weeks have spiked 3/24/2 (Jayden Reed), 9/109/1 (Davante Adams), and 4/17/2 (Nico Collins), qualifying Jauan Jennings as a fringe top-12 play for his team-high 28.6% target share in six starts without Brandon Aiyuk (torn ACL). … Deebo Samuel called for the rock against the Rams then proceeded to drop multiple passes including the would-be game-winning touchdown in the fourth quarter. As horrific as that performance was, his 22.6% target share with two carries (and seven over his last two games) suggests a higher WR3/FLEX floor than perceived. Guerendo’s absence could lead to more work for Deebo as an RB. … Ricky Pearsall’s four targets were his most since Week 10, though he’s yet to record more than one catch in that five-game span. The No. 31 overall pick is merely a contingency stash if Samuel were to miss time. … Miami permitted 8.4 (Davis Allen), 31.3 (Brock Bowers), 15.9 (Austin Hooper), and 13.8 fantasy points (Tucker Kraft) to starting TEs before Dalton Schultz (3.3) imitated a pontoon boat. George Kittle’s Week 13 snow-induced performance against the Bills was his only start to finish outside the top-12 TEs.

Los Angeles’ win on Thursday night allowed elimination to knock on Miami’s door, pitting Tua Tagovailoa in a Week 16 playoff game after he was pressured at his highest rate in any 2024 start against Houston. Unfortunately, Nick Bosa (oblique) rejuvenated San Francisco’s pass rush last week with six pressures, three hits, and three hurries. This offense could sink sans LT Terron Armstead (knee, doubtful), leaving Tua as a QB2 for Superflex leagues. … The Dolphins obviously can’t run the ball regardless of who’s available in their trenches, averaging 3.9 YPC (31st) with 101.4 rushing yards per game (26th). Still, De’Von Achane’s outlook is unimpeded for his 60% route participation (third among RBs), 16.4% target share (third), and ensuing 19.5 per-game points (sixth) since Tua returned in Week 8. Both Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Wright are afterthoughts in fantasy (barring an injury to Achane) given their between-the-tackles roles.

With Jaylen Waddle (ankle) ‘doubtful’ to suit up, note that Tyreek Hill has earned a 49% target share (!!!) in the 272 plays with his teammate off the field since last year, per Sports Info Solutions. … Sixth-rounder Malik Washington (5-foot-9/191) led the FBS with a position-high 35 forced missed tackles in 2023 and, in his first opportunity off the bench for Odell Beckham (waived) and Waddle, led the Dolphins in receiving yards (52). San Francisco has been airtight against slot receivers (ranking 31st in per-week points), but Miami’s condensed target tree logically boosts Washington as a cheap DFS punt and 14-team fill-in. … No TE has reached 13 fantasy points or 70 receiving yards against Fred Warner and the middle of this Niners defense, lowering the ceiling outlook for Jonnu Smith in tournaments. His floor in season-long formats is safe, registering a 19.8% target share (seventh) as the TE3 in points per game (16.2) with Tua from Week 8 on.

Score Prediction: 49ers 28, Miami 17

Editor’s Note: This Matchup was written by John Daigle, with input from Evan Silva.

Sunday Night Football

Tampa Bay @ Dallas

Team Totals: Buccaneers 26.5, Cowboys 22

Most recently torching the Chargers for season-high marks in completion rate (81.4%) and yards per attempt (10.6), Baker Mayfield continued his post-bye success with 9.3 YPA (second only to Josh Allen’s 9.6) over the last month and another top-seven finish — his third in the last four games and ninth in 11 starts with Mike Evans. Ignore New York’s 20-point letdown in Jerry World on Thanksgiving: Dallas has leaked 44, 28, 47, 30, 34, 34, and 27 points to seven surrounding opponents at home. … Fantasy’s RB7, RB3, RB1, and RB18 in his last four finished games, Bucky Irving (back/hip) practiced in full on Friday ahead of this juicy on-paper spot: The Cowboys remain one of only four defenses allowing 2.2 yards per attempt before contact and one of five permitting a 6% rate of explosive (15 yards) runs. Irving’s ceiling is higher than perceived given his 28 touches to Rachaad White’s 12 the last time Bucky logged a full practice. With double-digit touches in five consecutive appearances, White himself can sporadically chip in as an RB2/3.

Galveston’s own, Evans practically returns home needing 83.6 receiving yards per game to notch 1,000 for the 11th consecutive year. When asked if he wanted Evans to reach that mark, Baker responded, “I’m thinking about it more than Mike is.” Absent All-Pro CB Trevon Diggs (knee, I.R.), Dallas laid down against WR1s Terry McLaurin (5/102/1), Ja’Marr Chase (14/177/2), and Jalen Coker (4/110/1) in the last month. … Third-rounder Jalen McMillan already finished as the WR9 and WR18 in back-to-back games with 25% and 23% of the team’s targets with Cade Otton (knee, doubtful) available; likely without him in this contest, I fully expect McMillan to develop further as a WR3/FLEX or DFS punt (in the week’s highest total) against a Cowboys secondary allowing 0.7 points over expectation (14th) to his position. Otton can be dropped in season-long leagues. … McMillan’s emergence buried Sterling Shepard (12.5% target share the past two games), and the Cowboys have contained slot receivers to 11.2 weekly points (22nd). For showdown sickos, 2023 fifth-rounder Payne Durham (a 65th-percentile athlete) was the only TE to run a single route behind Otton out of their bye.

Tampa Bay’s “improved” defense the last month — 62.4% completion rate (10th), 6.0 YPA (second), and 42.9% pressure rate (second) — can arguably be attributed to playing Tommy DeVito, Bryce Young, Aidan O’Connell, and an injured Justin Herbert in that time, leaving the light on for Cooper Rush without starting SS Jordan Whitehead (pec, I.R.), FS Antoine Winfield (knee), and their backup Mike Edwards (hamstring). For Superflex leagues, note that Bucs HC Todd Bowles has blitzed opponents on 35% (second) of dropbacks, and Rush has mirrored Joe Burrow and Herbert with 7.7 YPA (17th) and a 4:1 TD-to-INT ratio against extra pass rushers. … No one’s coming for Rico Dowdle’s role after all 25 of his carries in Carolina gained positive yardage, out-touching Ezekiel Elliott 23 to 5 until Dallas’ final drive leading 30-14. You’re starting Rico in season-long leagues for his touch floor, but his ceiling in one-game tournaments is questionable: Whereas Dallas’ last four opponents ranked 23rd (Commanders), 24th (Giants), 31st (Bengals), and 32nd (Panthers) in Rushing Success Rate on defense, Tampa Bay’s above-average trenches sit 15th.

No team has allowed more per-game points (17.8) to receivers from out wide than Tampa Bay, and CeeDee Lamb has intermittently run 56% of his routes from that area since Brandin Cooks returned. Even with the latter, a WR5 and viable showdown option himself, registering 14.6% of Dallas’ targets off injured reserve, Lamb has earned 16.6% < 22.5% < 46.4% shares in that stint. … Jalen Tolbert was previously usable in fantasy solely for his route participation in 2-WR sets, but Cooks immediately drowned that role; KaVontae Turpin (16.3 points) for example has out-performed Tolbert (14.3) despite running 37 fewer routes since Week 13. You’re only playing either in showdown to unlock a stars-and-scrubs build. … Jake Ferguson would have been an every-down player against the Panthers if it weren’t for Dallas’ two-score fourth-quarter lead, and Luke Schoonmaker’s participation (23% < 13%) has dipped in consecutive games behind him. TE rooms have collectively recorded three (Giants), five (Panthers), 10 (Raiders), and six catches (Chargers) against the Bucs post-bye.

Score Prediction: Bucs 35, Cowboys 24

Editor’s Note: This Matchup was written by John Daigle, with input from Evan Silva.

Monday Night Football

New Orleans @ Green Bay

Team Totals: Saints 14, Packers 28.5

Although I’m tempted to pick the Saints so Silva’s cheesehead friends annoy him with screenshots all night, the truth is Spencer Rattler is ice skating uphill at Lambeau Field in mid-December with Derek Carr (broken left hand) done for the year. Green Bay has created pressure at the seventh-highest rate (32.7%) out of their bye, and Rattler has completed just 43.8% (36th) of his passes for zero touchdowns and three turnovers under duress. … Kendre Miller instills as much confidence as the starting RB for a 14-point road dog possibly can in place of Alvin Kamara (groin), most recently out-touching Jamaal Williams 10 to 0 and, in two games off injured reserve, running 23 routes to Williams’ six. Zach Charbonnet’s 24-yard TD run against the Packers lends hope for Kendre to explode for one as an every-touch RB2, especially if stud LB Quay Walker (ankle) is scratched. Our own Pat Thorman ranked Miller (RB21) ahead of Jerome Ford (RB22) and Patrick Taylor Jr. (RB32) — other available waiver options.

Even with All-World CB Jaire Alexander (knee) practicing in full, Marquez Valdes-Scantling can stay afloat as a FLEX for Rattler’s ability to carry a WR1 for 5/45/1, 6/57/1, and 8/107/0 in his three starts, coming off the bench against Washington and quietly connecting with MVS for gains of 39 and 25 yards; it’s hell on Earth behind him with “Kevin Austin” (53% route participation in Week 15), Dante Pettis (47%), and Cedrick Wilson (44%) turning eight targets into a combined 32 yards in that one. Perhaps Bub Means (questionable) can return to the same 21% and 15.6% target shares he earned in two starts before his head injury. … Both Juwan Johnson and Foster Moreau are live in showdown for their specific roles: Johnson’s run a route on an increased 76% of dropbacks in his last three games around Taysom Hill’s injury, and Moreau leads the Saints in end-zone targets (7). The latter’s long +450 odds to score a touchdown on DraftKings are fishy (in more ways than one).

There’s no denying Jordan Love’s dominance in five starts post-bye, completing 68.7% of his passes (eighth) for an NFL-best 9.8 YPA; the concerns are in his volume for Green Bay’s 47% dropback rate (31st) in that time, sinking to 30th in PROE (-7.8%) to date. Love still mustered a QB13 finish against the Seahawks as a fringe QB1 in any blowout. … The Packers will undoubtedly give the rock to Josh Jacobs and get the hell out of the way given his touch counts of 22 (RB5), 26 (RB2), 23 (RB5), 18 (RB4), and 30 (RB6) post-bye. New Orleans has allowed at least 16.8 fantasy points to enemy RB1s in eight of their last 10 games.

Romeo Doubs’ 19.2% target share against Seattle (despite resulting in two touchdowns) leaves a lot to be desired in any low-volume game script, finishing third behind Jayden Reed (23%) and Christian Watson (23%). For what it’s worth, New Orleans has used Cover 2 on 28% (third) of their snaps under interim HC Darren Rizzi and it’s Reed who’s been targeted on a team-high 27% of his routes against said scheme; Dontayvion Wicks’ Yards Per Route Run have also leaped from 0.55 (103rd) in one-on-one coverage compared to 1.86 (43rd) against zone. Having said that, Wicks’ route participation (30% < 36% < 29%) has sunk dramatically behind Watson’s (70% < 64% < 54%) in their last three starts with all four available. I rank them Reed > Watson > Doubs > Wicks for those reasons in season-long leagues and Reed > Wicks > Watson > Doubs for DFS. … Even if Luke Musgrave (ankle) were activated from injured reserve, Tucker Kraft was the TE10 in per-week points (8) with a 12.3% target share (17th) in the four games he started with Musgrave. Even so, I’m bearish on Kraft’s season-long outlook for this inevitable run-first game script. The Saints have additionally allowed a single TD to tight ends all year.

Score Prediction: Packers 27, Saints 10