Evan Silva’s Matchups: Week 1

Establish The Run - NFL Premium

Editor’s Note: This season, John Daigle will be writing Matchups for one afternoon game, SNF, and MNF. For these games, Evan Silva is also providing his notes to incorporate into the column.

BAL @ KC | GB vs. PHI | PIT @ ATL | ARI @ BUF | TEN @ CHI | NE @ CIN | HOU @ IND | JAX @ MIA | CAR @ NO | MIN @ NYG | LV @ LAC | DEN @ SEA | DAL @ CLE | WAS @ TB | LAR @ DET | NYJ @ SF

Thursday Night Football

Baltimore @ Kansas City

Team Totals: Chiefs 24.5, Ravens 21.5

Including playoffs, Lamar Jackson has faced Steve Spagnuolo’s Chiefs unit five times in his career. Jackson’s fantasy-point totals in those games are 18.3 (2023/24), 32.3 (2021), 16.2 (2020), 21.3 (2019), and 19.6 (2018) keyed by corresponding rushing lines of 8/54/0, 16/107/2, 9/83/0, 8/46/1, and 14/67/0. Jackson stated early in camp that he got “fat and slow” in recent years and is in tip-top shape this season, dropping to 205 pounds. (His 2018 Combine weigh-in was 6-foot-2, 216.) Even against a stout K.C. defense, Jackson is a locked-in top-six QB1 play. … Derrick Henry is positioned for 15+ touches in what profiles as a close game (3-point spread) against a Kansas City outfit that last year yielded the NFL’s seventh-most yards per carry (4.5). Top Chiefs DT Chris Jones tends to take run plays off, while fellow core interior defender Derrick Nnadi ranked 65th among 67 qualified defensive tackles in PFF’s 2023 grades, and Mike Pennel is 33 years old. DL Charles Omenihu (ACL) is opening the season on reserve/PUP. Behind Henry, the Ravens kept only veteran scatback/special teamer Justice Hill and fifth-round rookie Rasheen Ali.

Zay Flowers is poised for a sophomore leap after cobbling together a 17-game pace of 80/964/15 over his final seven 2023 appearances. Smallish Chiefs top CB Trent McDuffie (5-foot-10/193) likely won’t shadow, while HC Andy Reid indicated in camp that no contenders grabbed firm hold of the corner job vacated by L’Jarius Sneed (Titans). Flowers is an upside WR2/3 bet. … Last year’s Chiefs permitted the NFL’s sixth-fewest fantasy tight end points, while Mark Andrews’ five career receiving lines against Spags’ defense are 2/15/0, 5/57/0, 3/22/0, 3/15/0, and 0/0. … Rashod Bateman is a single-game DFS sleeper after turning in a mostly-healthy training camp and never facing serious competition for the Ravens’ No. 2 receiver job. … Nelson Agholor looks secure as Baltimore’s top slot option, although he projects to share time with No. 2 TE Isaiah Likely depending on personnel packages.

Baltimore is at risk of a severe defensive downgrade after losing strategic mastermind and talent maximizer Mike Macdonald to Seattle’s head coaching job. Player personnel-wise, DE Jadeveon Clowney (Panthers), ILB Patrick Queen (Steelers), S Geno Stone (Bengals), and CB Ronald Darby (Jags) departed. Even sans Marquise Brown (shoulder), I parlayed the Chiefs’ moneyline with Patrick Mahomes exceeding 1.5 touchdown passes at +130 odds. … Late-August signing Samaje Perine may eventually cut into Isiah Pacheco’s usage — specifically on passing downs — but Pacheco figures to handle a near-full workload until Perine gets up to speed. Including playoffs, Pacheco averaged a robust 23.6 touches over his final five 2023/24 appearances. He’s a surefire RB1 as a home-favorite workhorse here.

Marquise Brown’s absence all but ensures 4.21 blazer Xavier Worthy will open the year in a near-every-down role with Justin Watson running low-target-rate wind sprints opposite him. A separation specialist throughout camp and the preseason, Worthy projects as a boom-bust WR3 bet versus Baltimore. … Little about Rashee Rice’s on-paper matchup stands out positively — he’ll likely run most of his routes at ultra-talented Ravens CBs Kyle Hamilton and Marlon Humphrey — but Rice is a beast in the middle of the field whose playing time will skyrocket after he logged just 58% of Kansas City’s offensive snaps as a rookie. … Watson offers single-game DFS appeal as Brown’s probable top replacement, although Skyy Moore, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Mecole Hardman lurk as rotational WR options. … Travis Kelce turns 35 in a month, and the Chiefs sound intent on scaling back his playing time to keep Kelce as fresh as possible for the playoffs. Last year’s Ravens gave up the NFL’s fifth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Noah Gray carries mild single-game DFS tournament appeal as the favorite to operate as Kelce’s foremost rotational partner.

Score Prediction: Chiefs 27, Ravens 20

Editor’s Note: This Matchup was written by John Daigle, with input from Evan Silva.

Friday Night Football

Green Bay @ Philadelphia

Team Totals: Packers 23, Eagles 25.5

Corinthians Arena in São Paulo, Brazil hosts the first regular-season contest in South America and first Week 1 Friday night game (at 9:15 p.m. ET) since 1970.

Philadelphia’s upgraded offense under OC Kellen Moore will undoubtedly push the pace after last year’s Chargers led the league in combined play volume, allowing Jalen Hurts‘ managers to quickly forgive him for averaging 6.6 yards per attempt and 7.7 carries — a shell of his career averages (7.5 YPA, 9.8 carries) in three years starting — through multiple injuries from Week 11 on. Green Bay’s hyper-talented front seven is additionally a wash opposite Brandon Thorn’s No. 2 O-Line. Fortunately, new Packers DC Jeff Hafley leaned on single-high defense at Boston College and (unlike his predecessor) will be on a mission to stop the run. Hurts’ projection both through the air and up the gut unsurprisingly seat him top-two at his position. I bet him to rush for 2+ touchdowns on DraftKings (+800). … Saquon Barkley missed out on former DC Joe Barry’s annual tradition to be gashed from the ground, and this backfield has been targeted at the league’s sixth-lowest rate (15.2%) from Hurts. Fourth-round RB Will Shipley (5-foot-11/206) also blazed a 4.39 40-time (83rd percentile) and 38.5-inch vertical (89th) at his Pro Day then logged receiving reps over Barkley in camp. Shipley himself has little appeal outside of massive-field one-game DFS slates but admittedly limits Barkley’s Week 1 ceiling to low-end RB1 status. Kenneth Gainwell is expected to mix in during the 2-minute drill.

Green Bay’s secondary is in full-on flux following the splash signing of S Xavier McKinney (Pro Football Focus’ No. 1 coverage safety in 2023) and additions of No. 58 overall pick S Javon Bullard (5-foot-11/198) and Day 3 S Evan Williams (5-foot-11/200); No. 2 CB Eric Stokes has missed 22 games over the past two years, and All-Pro Jaire Alexander made nine appearances last season. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith most recently boxed out their teammates for a combined 51% target share but, assuming he’s installed in the CeeDee Lamb/Keenan Allen role, it’s Smith who pops here with a career 2.39 Yards Per Route Run from the middle of the field — fourth best from the slot since 2021. Fresh off career-high marks in targets (158) and catches (106), Brown’s opportunity perennially keeps him in top-12 territory. … Dallas Goedert registered his fewest yards (42.3) and points per game (7.8) since 2019 through multiple injuries but ran a route on 91.4% of dropbacks in 14 full starts (playoffs included). The Packers’ projected coverage shell (featuring an open pocket underneath and between the hashes) benefits Goedert more than any other Eagles skill player. Last year’s unit allowed seven receiving touchdowns (on only 72 catches) to enemy tight ends, boosting him as a volatile touchdown-or-bust option at low ownership in Showdown. … 2022 No. 16 overall pick Jahan Dotson was acquired on Aug. 22 for a third-round pick and two seventh-round picks in the 2025 Draft. Prior to his arrival, sixth-rounder Johnny Wilson (6-foot-6/231) was receiving first-team reps in camp; he led all Power Five receivers with 3.36 YPRR in 2022, per Pro Football Focus. Either will have to score a touchdown on limited snaps to return value.

Jordan Love’s average depth of target shrunk from 9.7 (third) through his first nine games to 8.2 (20th) from Week 11 on, allowing him to get rid of the ball and excel with a 6.8% touchdown rate and only three interceptions before being eliminated in the Divisional Round. The Eagles added No. 22 overall pick Quinyon Mitchell (6-foot/195), Bryce Huff, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson to improve on 2023’s second-most fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, but an overnight adjustment is unlikely. I trust Love (with his arsenal at full strength) in this spot. … The seas parted for Josh Jacobs in his cheesehead debut: A.J. Dillon was placed on season-ending injured reserve, rookie MarShawn Lloyd suffered a hamstring injury in late August, and RB2 Emanuel Wilson has been limited with a hip issue. Wilson was the only RB to force 10 missed tackles and record four 10-yard gains during the preseason. Leading the league in touches is a realistic outcome for Jacobs in Week 1.

Christian Watson did not miss a single practice from the start of OTAs through the end of training camp, providing a top-24 ceiling if he were glued to the field — a question only HC Matt LaFleur can answer. Given his wide range of outcomes, Watson should be viewed as a FLEX for Week 1. I’m more than willing to accept that volatility (and his 14 end-zone targets on only 53 opportunities) and let the chips fall where they may in large-field DFS tournaments. … Romeo Doubs led the Packers in targets (96) and routes run (509) in both the regular season and playoffs, recording 6/151/1 and 4/83/0 in two postseason starts. Playing in two-wide sets throughout camp, Doubs’ guaranteed ‘X’ role in this offense logically projects him to once again lead the roster in routes run on Friday night. … The WR27 in per-week points, slot WR Jayden Reed registered a team-high 2.05 YPRR and as many top-12 finishes (four) as Watson (two), Doubs (one), and Dontayvion Wicks (one) combined. His on-paper matchup remains the best of this group given the Eagles’ league-high points per game allowed in the slot, labeling him as an immediate WR3/FLEX. I expect Wicks to chip away at Watson’s usage in particular but ultimately finish fourth in on-field participation, as he did in the playoffs (29 snaps) with the entire lot healthy. He remains capable of torching any one-game slate: Look no further than his 1/65/1 line on one route (lol) from the preseason for evidence of that. … Backup TE Tucker Kraft missed a majority of camp with a torn pec muscle and was downgraded to limited with a back injury mid-week. It’s wheels up for Luke Musgrave, who lapped the team’s tight end room with 269 routes (87.9% participation) to Kraft’s 80 prior to the former’s abdominal injury in Week 11. Musgrave is a fringe TE1 in the season opener for his inevitable every-down usage. If Kraft were ruled out, note that 6-foot-5, 254-pound Ben Sims earned three red-zone targets when Musgrave was on injured reserve.

Score Prediction: Eagles 23, Packers 20

Pittsburgh @ Atlanta

Team Totals: Falcons 22.5, Steelers 19.5

The Steelers profile as one of football’s run-heaviest teams after first-year OC Arthur Smith’s past Tennessee and Atlanta offenses finished third, first, 29th, second, and 10th in rushing attempts per game. This is a #RevengeGame for Smith against the Falcons, who fired him after three seasons as coach. With Jaylen Warren coming off a multi-week hamstring strain, Najee Harris is positioned to vie for Week 1’s league lead in carries. I’m actively looking for ways to bet on Harris to lead the NFL in Opening Day rushing. If Warren can’t go, Smith confidante Cordarrelle Patterson would figure to fill in as Pittsburgh’s change-up back. Warren did make it sound early this week like he’s likelier than not to suit up for a rotational role. … HC Mike Tomlin named Russell Wilson the Steelers’ Week 1 starter after up-and-down preseasons from both Wilson and Justin Fields. I’m betting both make five-plus starts in 2024. 36 later this year, Wilson’s rushing production is in annual descent, while he’s sure to be on a short leash in an extreme low-volume passing attack.

Especially since the Steelers are semi-seriously trotting out Van Jefferson as their No. 2 receiver, Falcons HC Raheem Morris should feel incentivized to shadow George Pickens with A.J. Terrell. One of the NFL’s most physical corners, Terrell is capable of at very least frustrating the Steelers’ lone downfield weapon. … Jefferson, Calvin Austin, Roman Wilson (ankle), and Scotty Miller round out the NFL’s weakest WR corps. … Wide-bodied TE Darnell Washington poses a direct threat to Pat Freiermuth’s playing time in Smith’s run-devoted attack. Washington can block out the sun in the running game. Expect the Steelers to go heavy on multi-tight end sets that render Freiermuth worthless in fantasy.

Kirk Cousins, now 36, tore his Achilles last Oct. 29. After signing Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract with $90 million guaranteed, the Falcons shocked the world by drafting Michael Penix Jr. with April’s No. 8 overall pick. Especially against pressure-heavy Pittsburgh — last year’s Steelers ranked top 11 in both sacks (47) and QB hurry rate (23%) — Cousins profiles as an unexciting Week 1 box-score bet with minimal rushing capability. … Signs point to defensive-minded first-year Falcons HC Raheem Morris building his offense around Bijan Robinson in the Todd Gurley mold under fellow former Rams assistant Zac Robinson, now Atlanta’s OC. Tyler Allgeier remains one of fantasy’s top handcuff running backs, but Bijan profiles as a true bellcow behind Atlanta’s power-blocking offensive line.

Drake London looks poised for a significant third-year leap removed from ex-HC Arthur Smith’s run-obsessed offense quarterbacked the past two seasons by Desmond Ridder, Marcus Mariota, and Taylor Heinicke. Even against a stout Steelers secondary featuring physical No. 1 CB Joey Porter Jr. and speedy No. 2 Donte Jackson, I’m confidently firing up London as a borderline WR1/2 as a route runner who can win consistently on in-breakers, Cousins’ bread-and-butter throws. … My Week 1 interest in Darnell Mooney is minimal as a debatable talent entering a brand-new offense at risk of running empty wind sprints. … This is a #RevengeGame for former Steeler Ray-Ray McCloud. McCloud is a slot player; Pittsburgh’s projected starting slot corner is UDFA rookie Beanie Bishop. … Camp reports on Kyle Pitts were mixed in Atlanta’s new offense after Pitts failed to eclipse 40 receiving yards per game over the past two years. Pitts’ Week 1 matchup doesn’t stand out positively or negatively against a Pittsburgh middle-of-the-field defense already keyed by perennial All-Pro safety Minkah Fitzpatrick and infused by $41 million ILB addition Patrick Queen.

Score Prediction: Steelers 17, Falcons 16

Arizona @ Buffalo

Team Totals: Bills 27.5, Cardinals 20.5

On top of being further removed from 2022’s ACL/meniscus tear, Kyler Murray’s box-score appeal is rooted in Arizona’s weekly team-shootout potential with explosive weapons on an offense that must compensate for the NFL’s least-talented defense. (I really like the over on this game’s 48-point total.) Murray’s Week 1 matchup improved when the Bills lost ILB Matt Milano (torn bicep) in camp; rangy Milano may have been used as a “spy” to chase Kyler on scrambles. … I faded James Conner in redraft leagues because he’s 29 with nearly 1,400 touches on his tires, a lengthy injury history, and added competition after the Cards drafted big-play runner Trey Benson with April’s 66th overall pick. But there is no question about his 2023 performance; Conner was a top-15 back or better in yards per carry and yards created amid bottom-barrel run blocking. Milano’s absence is also certain to be felt by Buffalo’s run defense. I like Conner’s chances of hovering in the 16-20 touches range in Arizona’s opener.

No. 4 overall pick Marvin Harrison Jr. tactically conjures thoughts of DeAndre Hopkins’ 2020 season with Murray; Hopkins banked 115/1,407/6 receiving that year. As a passer, Kyler is at his best rolling out of the pocket and delivering to the perimeter. That is precisely where Harrison — and Hopkins before him — wins. Buffalo’s top outside corners are 2022 sixth-round pick Christian Benford and 30-year-old journeyman Rasul Douglas, who is on his sixth NFL team. … Bookending Harrison, sophomore Michael Wilson is a coaching staff favorite caught up in a target crunch. … Beat writers pegged tiny yet scrappy Greg Dortch as one of the stars of Cardinals camp. He’ll offer sporadic DFS sleeper attention over the course of the year, although Bills CB Taron Johnson is one of the NFL’s best slot defenders. … On paper, 2023 breakout Trey McBride is the biggest matchup beneficiary of Milano’s loss. Underrated Cards OC Drew Petzing looks poised to go heavy on three-receiver, one-tight end, 11-personnel packages that ensure McBride will almost never come off the field.

This is an eruption spot for Buffalo’s offense at home versus a Cardinals defense that was severely undermanned even before losing EDGE B.J. Ojulari (ACL) and second-round DL Darius Robinson (calf, I.R.) in camp. Free-agent signing Sean Murphy-Bunting — on his third team in three years — projects as Arizona’s top corner. Even with turnover throughout his pass-catcher corps, Josh Allen is Week 1’s premier fantasy quarterback play. … Totaling nearly 1,600 yards from scrimmage, James Cook was among 2023’s top breakout players. Cook’s touchdown potential can be capped in the same backfield as goal-line powerhouse Allen, but Cook is a safe RB2 bet in a game where Buffalo can score above expectation. … Beat writers are conservatively projecting rookie Ray Davis and Ty Johnson to open the season in a near-even No. 2 back timeshare. A preseason stud and heartthrob of OC Joe Brady, Davis is easily the superior long-term hold but a poor bet for early box-score impact.

The first tight end selected in 2023’s historic tight end draft — a record nine TEs went in the first three rounds — Dalton Kincaid looks poised for a humongous sophomore leap with the deck cleared for him to lead a Josh Allen-quarterbacked offense in receiving. The exits of Stefon Diggs (Texans) and Gabe Davis (Jaguars) vacated 241 targets from last year’s team. Kincaid is easily Buffalo’s most talented pass catcher left. … No. 2 TE Dawson Knox (groin, ankle) and WRs Curtis Samuel (turf toe) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (neck) all missed significant time in training camp. I’m betting on versatile possession type Khalil Shakir to lead Bills wide receivers in Week 1 snaps and targets, Mack Hollins to run the most empty wind-sprint routes, and second-round pick Keon Coleman to be slowly but surely eased in.

Score Prediction: Bills 34, Cardinals 23

Tennessee @ Chicago

Team Totals: Bears 24, Titans 20

This is an exciting spot for Chicago’s D/ST as a 4-point home favorite facing Will Levis, a volatile and oft-reckless gambler who last year took more hits per dropback than any NFL quarterback. The Titans are starting rookie J.C. Latham on Levis’ blindside, while first-team RG Saahdiq Charles retired mid-camp. Top WR DeAndre Hopkins (knee) missed almost all of August. … First-year HC Brian Callahan has promoted the notion of deploying Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears “interchangeably”, although the Titans’ vastly superior monetary commitment to Pollard on top of Pollard’s dynamic preseason suggests he will eventually emerge as the 1A to Spears’ 1B. I wouldn’t expect either back to experience immediate fantasy success as near-even committee partners in a probable low-scoring road affair.

Jaylon Johnson is a top-five NFL corner. Tyrique Stevenson is poised to emerge as a high-end No. 2. Kyler Gordon profiles as a playmaking slot defender. Savvy veteran Kevin Byard and bursty Jaquan Brisker complement each other beautifully at safety. I believe Chicago’s secondary could be the NFL’s best by year’s end and am limiting Week 1 expectations for all Titans pass catchers. … Hopkins’ poor matchup, injury recovery, and age (32) render him a low-floor WR3/4 option assuming he plays. … Camp reports on Levis’ chemistry with $92 million free-agent pickup Calvin Ridley were all over the map. I think I’ll be starting Ridley if Hopkins sits and sitting Ridley if Hopkins plays. … The Titans signed pedestrian slot man Tyler Boyd based on his history with Callahan from Cincinnati. Boyd has topped 60 receiving yards once in his last 26 games. … Signs point to Tennessee leaning on a two-way TEBC of Chig Okonkwo and Josh Whyle as part of a foundational three-receiver attack. The Bears will present tough tight end matchups all year featuring athletic freaks Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards at off-ball linebacker with Byard and Brisker behind them.

I took the under on this game’s total (44.5) betting that Chicago’s defense smothers Levis and Co. while defensive-minded Bears HC Matt Eberflus puts Week 1 training wheels on Caleb Williams. $24 million offseason signing D’Andre Swift could be the top beneficiary of such an approach. I also went over on Swift’s 25.0 receiving-yards prop facing a Titans defense trotting out ex-Chargers first-round bust Kenneth Murray and Aug. 27 trade acquisition Ernest Jones as starting off-ball linebackers. … Both more interior-oriented runners than perimeter slasher Swift, Bears Nos. 2 and 3 RBs Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson figure to be involved intermittently but encounter an imposing draw versus Titans All-Pro DT Jeffery Simmons and immovable 370-pound rookie T’Vondre Sweat up the middle.

I expect D.J. Moore to pick up with Caleb right where he left off with Justin Fields, who was an inferior passer in an inferior offensive scheme. Moore was a top-five fantasy receiver in 2023, and camp reports were effusively positive regarding his rapport with Williams. … On first-year DC Dennard Wilson’s watch, the Titans are counting on plus-sized and physical CBs L’Jarius Sneed (6-foot/192) and Chidobe Awuzie (6-foot/202) to key their perimeter pass coverage. Keenan Allen arguably checks in with Week 1’s top matchup for Bears wideouts against Titans slot CB Roger McCreary, a short-armed nickel against whom Allen can win with savvy routes and old-man moves. … I’m expecting No. 9 overall pick Rome Odunze to open the season as Chicago’s No. 3 receiver and eventually find his way into two-wideout formations. … Preseason signs pointed to Cole Kmet sharing tight end time almost equally with Gerald Everett, who was coached by first-year OC Shane Waldron with the Rams and Seahawks. Kmet is obviously the better player and should separate from Everett over time.

Score Prediction: Bears 21, Titans 13

New England @ Cincinnati

Team Totals: Bengals 25, Patriots 16.5

Cincinnati is arguably Week 1’s top D/ST play against well-traveled 31-year-old QB Jacoby Brissett, who turned in a decidedly poor preseason and looks like a sack waiting to happen behind New England’s swinging-gate offensive line. LT Vederian Lowe (abdomen) and LG Sidy Sow (ankle) both seem likely to miss the opener, while the Pats appear to be planning to start fourth-round rookie Layden Robinson at right guard. … Rhamondre Stevenson’s Week 1 outlook gained intrigue when Antonio Gibson (hip) popped up as limited in Thursday’s practice. I’ll treat Stevenson as a surefire RB2 at Cincy if Gibson can’t go. The Bengals’ run defense projects among the softest in the league, while Stevenson is more than capable in the passing game, buoying his floor in case the Patriots fall behind. … I’m not interested in any Patriots pass catchers until one substantively sets himself apart. Tyquan Thornton, Ja’Lynn Polk, DeMario Douglas, and K.J. Osborn look set to share wide receiver snaps with Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper rotating at tight end.

Losses of defensive mastermind Bill Belichick, $84 million DT Christian Barmore (blood clots, NFI), enforcer ILB Mack Wilson (Cardinals), and EDGE Matt Judon (Falcons) position New England’s defense to take a step back. My Opening Day expectations for Joe Burrow remain curbed after Ja’Marr Chase (holdout) sat out all of camp and Tee Higgins missed pre-Week 1 practice reps with a hamstring injury. Higgins lost four games to a hamstring strain in 2023. … The Bengals sound committed to a hot-hand-based distribution of backfield work between Zack Moss and Chase Brown rather than predetermining game-day RB roles. My bet is on chain-mover Moss leading the way in Week 1 snaps and carries but running into frequent line-of-scrimmage traffic jams that eventually inspire HC Zac Taylor to resort to far-more-explosive Brown’s ability to win on the perimeter. Moss profiles as a touchdown-dependent RB3/flex option. Brown is an RB4 lying in breakout wait.

With Christian Gonzalez back healthy to round out New England’s cornerback trio with Jonathan Jones and slot defender Marcus Jones, and Jabrill Peppers and Kyle Dugger forming one of the league’s top safety tandems, secondary play is obviously the Patriots’ team strength. I bet on Cincinnati scoring under 24.5 points in this game at -110 odds. … For the aforementioned reasons and Sunday’s difficult draw, I’m downgrading Chase to a WR2 and Higgins to a WR3/flex play here. … Andrei Iosivas ended camp with a firm grip on the Bengals’ No. 3 receiver job, while beat writers indicated third-round rookie Jermaine Burton never made a compelling playing-time move and could be a healthy scratch. … The Bengals’ pre-Week 1 depth chart listed blocking TE Drew Sample ahead of Mike Gesicki.

Score Prediction: Bengals 20, Patriots 13

Houston @ Indianapolis

Team Totals: Texans 25.5, Colts 23

As a rookie, C.J. Stroud coolly carved up Colts DC Gus Bradley’s unit for a combined 50-of-73 passing (68.5%), 648 yards (8.9 YPA), a 4:0 TD-to-INT ratio, and 21 yards rushing. The Texans this offseason added Stefon Diggs with Tank Dell entering his second year and get back every key member of 2023’s most-injured offensive line. Indoors at Lucas Oil Stadium with a much-improved supporting cast, Stroud is set to eat. … Joe Mixon is a volume-over-efficiency bet lacking big-play ability taking on Indianapolis’ loaded defensive line. Just two of Mixon’s 257 carries last season exceeded 20 yards. Three of the Colts’ first-team front-four defenders are first-round picks, while lone non-first-rounder NT Grover Stewart is a pocket-crushing power player. I’m ultimately viewing Mixon as a TD-dependent RB2 play.

Nico Collins creamed Bradley’s secondary for 2023 stat lines of 7/146/1 and 9/195/1. The X-receiver equivalent of past Shanahanian alphas Brandon Marshall, Andre Johnson, and Julio Jones, Collins is a shoo-in WR1. … Stefon Diggs draws Week 1’s toughest matchup in Houston’s WR corps against stingy Colts slot CB Kenny Moore, who earned PFF’s No. 17 coverage grade among qualified corners in 2023. … Tank Dell cooked the Colts for 7/72/1 receiving in last Week 2’s meeting, then missed their Week 18 date due to a fractured fibula. Fully recovered, I’m confidently teeing up Dell as an upside WR3 in Sunday’s plus draw indoors. … The Texans made Dalton Schultz the NFL’s ninth-highest-paid tight end this spring on a three-year, $36 million deal with $23.5 million guaranteed. Last year’s Colts permitted the NFL’s seventh-most catches (91) and 10th-most yards (905) to tight ends.

Anthony Richardson enters his second season as an enigma after playing the equivalent of 2.5 full games as a rookie but flashing fantasy league-winning upside with top-four QB1 scores in Weeks 1 and 4. On the Josh Allen–Cam Newton skill-set spectrum, Richardson stands 6-foot-4, 244 with 4.43 speed but has passing-acumen questions to answer. With limited data, I favor betting on Houston’s fantasy D/ST over Richardson here. … In DeMeco Ryans’ first season as coach, the Texans allowed the NFL’s fewest yards before contact per opponent rushing attempt and second-fewest yards per carry (3.5). Jonathan Taylor did go to town on Ryans’ defense last Week 18, parlaying 32 touches into 196 yards and a TD while averaging 6.3 yards per carry. So long as he stays healthy, volume will be no obstacle for Taylor with slug Trey Sermon and undersized Tyler Goodson as the only RBs behind him.

Michael Pittman Jr. profiles as a WR2/3 gamble matched up with a combination of emerging shutdown CB Derek Stingley and physical second-round rookie Kamari Lassiter. The Texans held Pittman to receiving lines of 8/56/0 and 5/44/0 in 2023’s two meetings. … Josh Downs’ high ankle sprain locks Alec Pierce into Indianapolis’ No. 2 outside role with rookie Adonai Mitchell in the slot. Yet Pierce has cleared 60 yards once over his last 21 games. Mitchell has special athletic talent, but the actual extent of his Week 1 role is unknown in a probable run-first offense that will likely go light on three-wide sets. … HC Shane Steichen showed a 2023 willingness to run four-way tight end committees on an every-week basis. Kylen Granson, Mo Alie-Cox, Drew Ogletree, and Will Mallory figure to all share snaps.

Score Prediction: Texans 30, Colts 17

Editor’s Note: This Matchup was written by John Daigle, with input from Evan Silva.

Jacksonville @ Miami

Team Totals: Jaguars 23, Dolphins 26.5

Closing the year on a sour note through multiple injuries, Trevor Lawrence’s 45.3% completion rate under pressure (33rd) paled in comparison to his 71.6% rate when kept clean. Fortunately, Miami’s pass rush out the gates leaves a lot to be desired with All-Pro Bradley Chubb (torn ACL) on PUP and both DT Christian Wilkins (Raiders) and EDGE Andrew Van Ginkel (Vikings) lost in free agency. With the ability to respond to whatever HC Mike McDaniel dishes out, this environment elevates all Jags skill players. Lawrence is undoubtedly a QB1 and intriguing at low DFS ownership in game stacks. … Travis Etienne’s pre-bye excellence included 22.3 weekly touches and eight ensuing scores. He hit a wall over his last nine games with one performance of 60+ rushing yards on 16.3 per-week touches. HC Doug Pederson has been adamant 2023 third-rounder Tank Bigsby will “take a little bit off of Travis [Etienne]” in order to keep the latter fresh; I’ll believe it when I see it. Wilkins notably graded (one spot ahead of Aaron Donald) as PFF’s No. 16 interior defender out of 143 qualifiers against the run.

Signed to a three-year, $39 million contract to replace Calvin Ridley (and reunite with former Bills WRs coach Chad Hall), Gabe Davis ran a route on every dropback with Lawrence in August and was targeted twice inside the red zone — Ridley most recently led Jacksonville in both red-zone (40) and end-zone (22) targets. It’s always uncomfortable to project for him, but Davis’ every-down role (in this game in particular) paints him as a boom-or-bust WR3/FLEX. I’m starting him for the upside over Najee Harris, for example, in a $2,000 Main Event league. … Boxed out in two-wide sets for his 71% slot rate, Christian Kirk has the benefit of siphoning on-field reps from No. 23 overall pick Brian Thomas Jr. (6-foot-3/209) until the rookie is fully integrated — per our charting, Thomas was targeted on only 7% of his routes with Lawrence during the preseason. Earning a 20% target share across 12 injury-riddled appearances last year, Kirk is also the likeliest to avoid Jalen Ramsey in this matchup. Thomas is a matchup-based FLEX, although that outlook could be short-lived pending Davis’ immediate production. … Even in being hammered with a position-high 143 targets, Evan Engram ‘only’ finished as the TE4 in points per game due to his 5-yard depth of target as TE Wan’Dale Robinson. It’s also concerning that Engram did not record a single end-zone target until Kirk was injured in Week 13; he scored all four of his touchdowns from that point forward, too. I question his ceiling for DFS tournaments, but his floor is far too high to ignore on managed teams.

Jacksonville’s defense came crashing back to Earth after the bye — 16.1% explosive pass rate (29th) and 7.7 yards per attempt (30th) — and remain a mess following the offseason losses of DBs Rayshawn Jenkins (1,099 snaps), Darious Williams (1,035), and Tre Herndon (482). Arik Armstead (3-year, $43.5 million) registered five sacks in 12 appearances last year, but Kyle Shanahan’s coaching tree (McDaniel included) has learned to mitigate pressure through their play-calling. Tua Tagovailoa remains a QB1 and unique way to try and soak up all of Miami’s 26.5-point team total. … Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane overlapped for eight full games (including the playoffs) and practically mirrored each other in touches with the veteran edging out Achane 14.2 to 13.2. Mostert out-carried Achane 13-4 inside the 5-yard line in those instances, and the rookie registered 14 more targets (34 to 20). With only four available WRs, Achane’s “expanded roles” in the passing game make sense: The 22-year-old ran 11 routes in the preseason and four were either out wide or from the slot. Both are must-start options, with Mostert standing out in DFS for the (large) discrepancy in projected ownership between he and Achane, who will lock as the main slate’s highest-rostered RB. An obvious season-long stash with a 4.38 forty and the second-longest broad jump (11’2″) of any RB in NFL Combine history, we’re projecting Jaylen Wright (5-foot-11/210) to remain buried with only two carries in Week 1. (He’s the cover image of our new One Injury Away list for a reason.)

Tyreek Hill (33%) and Jaylen Waddle (23%) accounted for 56% of Miami’s targets and receiving scores (30) last year, and neither has a distinguishable coverage-based advantage (or blemish) between them. For what it’s worth, Waddle missed multiple weeks of camp with an undisclosed injury; he returned to practice on Aug. 21. Hill is ranked as Pat Thorman’s overall WR1. … Day 3 slot WR Malik Washington (5-foot-9/191) led the FBS with a position-high 35 forced missed tackles in 2023 and walks into three-wide sets by default following Odell Beckham’s stint on the PUP list. McDaniel’s propensity to jam his best players (and only his best players) the ball admittedly pours cold water on Washington’s Week 1 outlook beyond dynasty benches. … Text from Silva: “Dolphins used Jonnu Smith behind Durham Smythe in the preseason and listed Jonnu as a backup FB on their official depth chart.” Smith is unusable in any format until we see his participation under the hood.

Score Prediction: Dolphins 31, Jaguars 28

Carolina @ New Orleans

Team Totals: Saints 22.5, Panthers 18.5

Carolina’s coaching change to purported QB whisperer Dave Canales has been billed as a resounding positive for Bryce Young’s career trajectory, yet Young’s 5-foot-10, 204-pound stature can’t be overcome, while Young’s supporting cast remains among the league’s worst. The Saints’ D/ST is an attractive bet at the Superdome against a Panthers offense that could struggle to move the ball at all. In last year’s two dates with Saints HC Dennis Allen’s defense, Young combined to take eight sacks, complete an anemic 50.7% of his passes, average 4.2 yards per attempt, and lose two fumbles. … With Jonathon Brooks (ACL) on reserve/NFI until Week 5 at least, Canales indicated the Panthers will rotate Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders. Preseason usage suggests Hubbard will operate as Carolina’s lead back with Sanders changing the pace. In Week 1, Hubbard profiles as an unexciting if viable RB3/flex based on opportunity. The Saints project to play above-par run defense keyed by stout DLs Cam Jordan, Khalen Saunders, and Nathan Shepherd with run-and-hit off-ball LBs Demario Davis and Pete Werner cleaning things up behind them.

Diontae Johnson missed training camp time with a groin strain and figures to draw Saints top CB Marshon Lattimore’s shadow in Week 1. Johnson offers lofty full-season target-volume upside but isn’t set up for success here. … I like Adam Thielen to outscore Johnson against the Saints, squaring off with up-and-down Alontae Taylor in the slot. Last year, Thielen led Carolina in targets, receptions, yards, and first-down catches on throws from Young, and it wasn’t close. … 2023 second-round dud Jonathan Mingo and 2024 first-round reach Xavier Legette are in an ongoing battle for third receiver snaps. … Late-camp injuries to TEs Tommy Tremble (hamstring) and Ian Thomas (calf) necessitated Carolina signing Messiah Swinson off the Packers’ practice squad. Fourth-round rookie Ja’Tavion Sanders and ex-WR Jordan Matthews also made the 53. It’s a fantasy situation to avoid.

New Orleans risks fielding the NFL’s worst offensive line this year. Rookie LT Taliese Fuaga is a college right tackle most teams projected to guard, LG Lucas Patrick was a liability as a starter in Chicago last season, and RT Trevor Penning has proven he doesn’t belong in the league. Per beat writers, pass protection was a huge problem in Saints camp. … Derek Carr’s checkdown propensity should be highlighted in such an environment, benefiting Alvin Kamara in particular. Kendre Miller’s (knee/ankle/hamstring, I.R.) failure to emerge solidified Kamara as New Orleans’ unchallenged lead back with plodder Jamaal Williams in reserve. … The Saints’ fanbase has understandably lost patience with Carr, inspired by fifth-round rookie Spencer Rattler’s promising preseason. Offensive line shortcomings place Carr at a competitive disadvantage, but he is set up to perform well at home against Carolina’s pushover defense, which notably lost top EDGE Brian Burns (Giants), CB Donte Jackson (Steelers), EDGE Yetur Gross-Matos (49ers), ILB Frankie Luvu (Commanders), SS Vonn Bell (Bengals), and DB Jeremy Chinn (Commanders) this offseason. Carr is backend playable in two-quarterback leagues.

On 2023 throws from Carr, Chris Olave led New Orleans by a 40-target margin and gained 293 more receiving yards than any other Saint. Transitioning to a wideout-friendlier system under Kyle Shanahan disciple OC Klint Kubiak, the deck is cleared for a monster Olave breakout. No aspect of Carolina’s secondary is imposing. … A dynamic kickoff- and punt-return specialist the past two seasons, Rashid Shaheed now gets an opportunity to grab New Orleans’ No. 2 receiver role. Projected No. 3 WR A.T. Perry was all but ignored by Saints QBs in camp. In DFS tournaments, returner extraordinaire Shaheed correlates nicely with New Orleans’ D/ST. … HC Dennis Allen proactively talked up Taysom Hill as a critical component of New Orleans’ offense throughout August, and the Saints listed Hill at tight end on their pre-Week 1 depth chart. Taysom won’t catch many balls — Juwan Johnson is still technically the team’s top pass-catching tight end — but Hill could get enough scoring-position usage to punch in a handful of touchdowns over the course of the year. Still, it speaks loudly to the Saints’ dearth of playmakers that they’re hellbent on featuring a 34-year-old gadget guy on offense.

Score Prediction: Saints 23, Panthers 16

Minnesota @ N.Y. Giants

Team Totals: Vikings 21.5, Giants 19.5

I like the Giants as a sleeper D/ST against Sam Darnold at The Meadowlands, where now-journeyman Darnold’s career spiraled with the Jets as 2018’s No. 3 overall pick. On the field, the G-Men hold a massive matchup advantage in the trenches, where the weakness of Minnesota’s offensive line is on an interior that could be bullied by 342-pound All-Pro NT Dexter Lawrence, flanked by dynamic EDGEs Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux. A Week 1 Darnold meltdown and Giants upset win should surprise no one. … The Vikings kept only two tailbacks on their final roster, indicating full faith in the health of Aaron Jones and securing Ty Chandler as one of fantasy’s top handcuffs. Interior running lanes may be hard to come by versus Lawrence and Co., but Jones and Chandler tend to shine brightest on the perimeter, anyway. I like Jones as an RB2 play and Chandler as a must-stash in all leagues.

Target volume and elite route separation should keep Justin Jefferson safe from falling victim to Darnold potentially tanking. It’s also entirely possible Darnold does play well in HC Kevin O’Connell’s exceptionally QB-friendly system against New York’s unimposing secondary, in which case Jefferson could really eat. At the end of camp, the Giants were desperate enough to re-sign CB Adoree Jackson, who got cooked for a 92 QB Rating and 65% completion rate when targeted in 2023. Jackson may even start on Sunday. … Nos. 2 and 3 WRs Jordan Addison and Jalen Nailor enter the season battling late-camp ankle sprains. At one point, Addison’s was rumored to be of the dreaded high variety. I’m viewing Addison as a risky WR3/flex gamble and Nailor as a mildly intriguing deep-league stash. … As T.J. Hockenson (ACL/MCL) opened the year on reserve/PUP, the Vikings will resort to blocking types Johnny Mundt and Josh Oliver at tight end. Neither is a compelling sleeper.

This game could be Week 1’s ugliest; both D/STs are firmly in play. Daniel Jones finished 2023 ranked 48th among 48 qualified quarterbacks in EPA per dropback when pressured, and few defensive coordinators are willing to blitz more than Minnesota’s Brian Flores. … The Giants signed Devin Singletary to a three-year, $16.5 million contract in free agency, reuniting him with ex-Bills OC Brian Daboll. Singletary’s calling cards are his craftiness as an inside runner and multi-phase reliability, but he lacks power and big-play ability and has never excelled in the pass game. Eventually, I hope the Giants give versatile and explosive fifth-round rookie Tyrone Tracy a shot at a significant backfield role. But in Week 1, running back touches project to be controlled by Singletary as a volume-driven RB3/flex option.

I’m staying all-in on Malik Nabers even in a game environment where his quarterback risks major struggle. Daboll, who has re-seized play-calling duties from OC Mike Kafka, will run virtually his entire passing offense through April’s No. 6 overall pick. The Vikings were worried enough about their own secondary that they signed 34-year-old Stephon Gilmore off the street late in camp. Nabers will undoubtedly run circles around Gilmore should they meet on the field Sunday. … Some combination of vertical threats Jalin Hyatt and Darius Slayton will bookend Nabers outside with Wan’Dale Robinson in the slot. None of them profile as fantasy assets in an offense that will struggle for passing production while being dominated in target share by Nabers. … JAG Daniel Bellinger, fourth-round rookie Theo Johnson, and sixth-OL type Chris Manhertz will share Giants tight end time. No thanks.

Score Prediction: Giants 21, Vikings 20

Las Vegas @ L.A. Chargers

Team Totals: Chargers 21.5, Raiders 18.5

Even against a top-heavy and ultimately vulnerable Chargers defense headlined by a few elite names but composed mostly of liabilities, Gardner Minshew is a full-on fade in an offense coordinated by failed ex-Bears OC Luke Getsy. Minshew was bad in August, only “winning” Vegas’ quarterback job because Aidan O’Connell was worse. The Chargers’ D/ST is wholly playable. … HC Antonio Pierce sounds intent on building his offense around Zamir White, who ran 4.4-flat at 6-foot/214 coming out of Georgia and handled touch counts of 20, 22, 25, and 26 in last year’s final four games. The Chargers’ front seven is talented on the edges (Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack) but otherwise soft and at risk of getting bullied by physical teams. Pierce, obviously, wants Las Vegas to be one of the NFL’s most physical teams. Last year, White finished No. 9 in the league in yards after contact per rush attempt.

Minshew effectively delivering him the ball is a concern, but Davante Adams is still playing at an extremely high level nearing age 32. The Chargers’ first-team corner duo of smallish Asante Samuel Jr. (5-foot-10/180) and Titans castoff Kristian Fulton is unintimidating. … After a fairly hot start under then-HC Josh McDaniels — his pal from New England — Jakobi Meyers averaged a fantasy-worthless 42.2 receiving yards over his final 10 games in 2023. … The Raiders making Michael Mayer 2023’s No. 35 pick, then drafting Brock Bowers 13th overall in April all but locks them into a base two-tight end offense, vastly reducing situational deep threat WR Tre Tucker’s time on the field. Bowers profiles as the movement-F tight end with Mayer as a true in-line Y. The Bolts’ defense looks vulnerable over the middle, leaning on 31-year-old retread ILB Denzel Perryman, third-round rookie ILB Junior Colson, and enigmatic SS Derwin James. I’m still keeping initial box-score expectations low for Mayer and Bowers behind Adams in the target line as part of a likely dysfunctional passing attack.

My passing-efficiency expectations for Justin Herbert are high in HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman’s old-school offense, but fantasy expectations are low in a probable run-first attack with Herbert’s mobility potentially limited by plantar fasciitis. Herbert also risks facing heavy Week 1 pressure with Raiders All-Pro LE Maxx Crosby lining up opposite Bolts rookie RT Joe Alt and $110 million DT Christian Wilkins wrecking pockets from the interior. … I’m betting on Harbaugh and Roman to run a 50/50 RBBC tandem of Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins to open Week 1, then leaning on a “hot hand” should one distinguish himself in the first half. Sixth-round rookie Kimani Vidal and late-camp waiver-wire pickup Hassan Haskins — who played for Harbaugh at Michigan — remain worthy of end-of-bench stashes. The Chargers are going out of their way to establish a power-based run game, on down to anointing 296-pound converted defensive tackle Scott Matlock as their starting fullback.

Low-volume projections for L.A.’s pass offense and the absence of pass-catching alphas reduce expectations for individual members. Second-round WR Ladd McConkey battled knee and ankle injuries late in his college career, then missed much of camp with an undisclosed injury. Theoretical field stretcher D.J. Chark could not practice early this week due to a hip injury. Josh Palmer is probably the Bolts’ best bet for early-season reliability, albeit with a limited ceiling. … 2023 first-round pick Quentin Johnston doesn’t even seem like a safe bet to be active for Week 1. Derius Davis is a more valuable special teamer, while seventh-round rookie Brenden Rice outplayed Johnston in camp. … My favorite Chargers sleeper is TE Will Dissly, who was the team’s top free-agent pickup. Due to his blocking acumen and chain-moving bankability, Dissly should rarely leave the field.

Score Prediction: Chargers 20, Raiders 17

Denver @ Seattle

Team Totals: Seahawks 23.5, Broncos 17.5

I took the Broncos +6 in this one, banking on HC Sean Payton to keep rookie QB Bo Nix in high-percentage situations with quick-game passing and a voluminous rushing attack a la Payton’s old Saints offense with Teddy Bridgewater. Nix is an underrated runner, having averaged a cool 4.0 yards per carry with 38 rushing TDs in his college career. Nix is a fringe QB2/3 fantasy type. … Now well over a full year removed from 2022’s ACL/LCL/PCL tear, Javonte Williams reported to camp in tip-top shape and ran away with Denver’s feature running back job early. The Broncos’ offensive line is built for run blocking far more than pass protection, while 2023’s Seahawks yielded the NFL’s second-most fantasy points to running backs. Seattle’s run defense should be better under rookie HC Mike Macdonald, yet Williams looks positioned for roughly 20 touches in a favorable draw with only 5-foot-8, 187-pound scatback Jaleel McLaughlin posing a legit in-house threat for backfield usage.

Nix’s passing style is built on quick game emphasizing RPOs and low-aDOT throws with a lofty completion rate. He is not a vertical passer. Nix’s fit with big-bodied downfield clasher Courtland Sutton is fair to question, even with Sutton in firm possession of the Broncos’ No. 1 receiver role. … Josh Reynolds’ game is similar to Sutton’s on the opposite side of the formation, low on separation but high on ball skills and not necessarily a quick-game fit. … 2023 second-round speedster Marvin Mims looks positioned for No. 3 receiver duties but seemingly claimed the role by default and isn’t assured of keeping it. I plan to let Denver’s wide receiver corps play out a bit before investing in any members in fantasy. … Longtime Sean Payton confidant Adam Trautman, 2022 third-round China Doll Greg Dulcich, and converted baseball player Lucas Krull figure to form a fantasy-irrelevant three-way TEBC.

On paper, Geno Smith is an impeccable fit for new Seahawks OC Ryan Grubb’s system. Grubb’s Washington Huskies offense featured spread formations and encouraged Michael Penix Jr. to stand in the pocket and deliver downfield, which is Geno’s bread and butter. The problem is Smith’s lack of pass-protection reliability; C Evan Brown (Cardinals) and LG Damien Lewis (Panthers) left in free agency, while RT Abe Lucas (knee) is opening the year on reserve/PUP. Broncos DC Vance Joseph is as willing as any defensive coach to send the house relentlessly. … By all accounts, Kenneth Walker ran laps around Zach Charbonnet in Seahawks camp and is set to dominate Week 1 backfield touches. The Broncos’ front seven projects among the softest in the league littered with late-round picks and castoffs.

Arguably the NFL’s best corner — and now its highest paid — I’m expecting Patrick Surtain to chase DK Metcalf on most of Sunday’s snaps. Such a scenario would open opportunities for second-year leap candidate Jaxon Smith-Njigba in matchups with Broncos No. 2 CB Riley Moss — who earned just 23 defensive snaps as a 2023 rookie — and third-year UDFA slot defender Ja’Quan McMillian. JSN’s outlook is enhanced by Tyler Lockett’s shaky health after 32-year-old Lockett missed several weeks of training camp with a knee injury. … This is a #RevengeGame for ex-Bronco Noah Fant, whose path to full-time tight end usage is clear after Seattle let Will Dissly (Chargers) and Colby Parkinson (Rams) walk in free agency. On paper, Denver’s defense looks quite vulnerable in the middle of the field.

Score Prediction: Seahawks 23, Broncos 20

Dallas @ Cleveland

Team Totals: Browns 21.5, Cowboys 19.5

I took the under on this game’s 41-point total in a battle between teams whose defenses both have mismatch advantages over the enemy offense. The Cowboys are trotting out rookies at left tackle and center; first-round LT Tyler Guyton, a right tackle only in college, will open his career trying to block 2023 Defensive POY Myles Garrett, while third-round C Cooper Beebe hardly played center at Kansas State. Dallas is dangerously thin throughout its skill-position corps. No longer a dynamic runner, Dak Prescott does not warrant QB1 treatment at Cleveland. … HC Mike McCarthy indicated toward the end of camp that Rico Dowdle would lead a backfield committee also involving washed plodder Ezekiel Elliott and 5-foot-5, 179-pound Deuce Vaughn. A fifth-year UDFA who operated as a committee back in his four-year college career at South Carolina and has earned just 113 touches through four NFL seasons, Dowdle is best treated as a low-floor RB3/flex option here.

Fresh off leading the NFL in targets (181) and catches (135), CeeDee Lamb returns as the Cowboys’ unchallenged offensive focal point. The NFL’s premier power-slot receiver, Lamb is a matchup-proof volume vacuum through whom pass-first HC Mike McCarthy’s attack funnels. … Top perimeter WR Brandin Cooks’ Week 1 outlook is less promising squaring off with stingy Browns outside CBs Denzel Ward and Martin Emerson. 31 later this month, Cooks topped 60 yards in just two of 17 games (including playoffs) in his first season with Dallas. … No. 3 WR Jalen Tolbert has earned only 39 targets in two NFL campaigns. I’m not optimistic about his chances of emerging as a positive Year 3 contributor. … I’ve heard that, internally, the Cowboys view TE Jake Ferguson as their clear-cut No. 2 option in the pass game. Last year, Ferguson quietly finished seventh among tight ends in targets (102), ninth in catches (71), and eighth in yards (761). He’s a solid mid- to low-end TE1 play here.

The health of Deshaun Watson’s right (throwing) shoulder remained a concern in camp and, injured or not, Watson has been an uncomfortable in-pocket operator for an extended stretch. He seems certain to remain uncomfortable here without LT Jedrick Wills (MCL) against Dallas’ fearsome pass rush keyed by the elite EDGE duo of Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. There are vulnerabilities in the Cowboys’ back seven, but I’m not confident Watson is up to the task of exploiting them. … With Nick Chubb (knee) on reserve/PUP and Nyheim Hines (knee) on reserve/NFI, Jerome Ford is locked in as the Browns’ top tailback with special teams type Pierre Strong and one-dimensional bruiser D’Onta Foreman behind him. In OC Ken Dorsey’s spread-style offense, I’m projecting Ford to land in the 9-13 carry range with 3-5 targets. He’s a largely unexciting RB3/flex option.

The Cowboys will open the year sans ballhawking No. 2 CB DaRon Bland (I.R., foot), forcing fifth-round rookie Caelen Carson to start opposite Trevon Diggs. Amari Cooper led 2023’s Browns in targets (39), catches (28), yards (480), and first-down gains (20) on Watson’s throws. In a #RevengeGame against his former team, I’m treating Cooper as an upside WR3 play. … I’m in wait-and-see mode regarding offseason trade acquisition Jerry Jeudy in a brand-new offense with Watson at the helm. Jeudy turned in a quiet camp, which could be construed as a good thing. … The Browns seem set to deploy a fantasy-inconsequential No. 3 receiver rotation of Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman. … David Njoku has the best Week 1 on-paper matchup among Browns pass catchers. The Browns should put a target on the back of Cowboys 32-year-old journeyman MLB Eric Kendricks, a big liability in coverage.

Score Prediction: Browns 17, Cowboys 16

Washington @ Tampa Bay

Team Totals: Bucs 23.5, Commanders 20

Commanders OC Kliff Kingsbury’s preseason offensive designs indicated he’s reverting to the “Horizontal Raid” that got Kingsbury run out of Arizona. College football’s premier downfield passer at LSU — he led the NCAA in yards per pass attempt in 2023 — Jayden Daniels was frustratingly deployed as a low-aDOT, quick-release QB in August. The Commanders solely ran three-receiver, one-tight end formations, and No. 1 WR Terry McLaurin lined up in the same spot on every snap. Brandon Thorn pegged Washington’s offensive line as worst in the league. This is a green-light opportunity for Tampa Bay’s D/ST. … Washington beat writers expect Brian Robinson Jr. to handle early-down work with Austin Ekeler replacing him on change-of-pace and passing downs. As the Commanders are road dogs here, Week 1 sets up more favorably for Ekeler than Robinson in box-score terms.

McLaurin’s matchup is nevertheless enticing for fantasy-WR3 playability; the Bucs traded top CB Carlton Davis to Detroit and are stretching Jamel Dean from No. 2 to No. 1 corner responsibilities. A 1,000+ yard producer in four straight years, McLaurin’s in-house target competition barely exists. … Candidates for Washington’s No. 2 WR job include third-round rookie Luke McCaffrey, tiny journeyman Olamide Zaccheaus, fourth-year non-producer Dyami Brown, and 31-year-old retread Jamison Crowder. … My sense is catch-and-fall specialist Zach Ertz will be a bigger fantasy factor than he deserves to be under Kingsbury. Turning 34 soon, Ertz is averaging 9.2 yards per reception over the past four years. There were no preseason indications that second-round pick Ben Sinnott was pushing for early-season snaps; Sinnott looks to be behind both Ertz and John Bates.

Baker Mayfield may not draw a friendlier matchup all season at home facing a scrapped-together Commanders defense with all of his pass catchers in prime box-score position. Washington is at risk of getting cooked at all three levels. I parlayed the Bucs’ moneyline with Mayfield exceeding 250 passing yards at +200. … After Rachaad White struggled mightily on the ground throughout 2023, HC Todd Bowles indicated this week that the Bucs are opening their backfield to a hot hand. “It’ll be a game-by-game basis,” Bowles said. “You normally go with the hot hand, but since nobody has played yet, obviously Rachaad starts and then we’ll kinda go from there and see how the other guys are used.” White is RB2 playable in Sunday’s plus draw, but Bucky Irving stashers should cling tight.

Mike Evans’ Week 1 draw is mouthwatering against some combination of 166-pound 2023 first-round CB dud Emmanuel Forbes and 2021 third-rounder Benjamin St-Juste. On last year’s throws from Mayfield, Evans led Tampa in receiving by a 231-yard margin and scored 13 TDs; next closest was Cade Otton (4). … Transitioning back to the slot, Chris Godwin’s main Week 1 defender projects as Commanders second-round rookie Mike Sainristil, who stands 5-foot-9, 182 to Godwin’s 6-foot-1/209. 2023 was a down year for Godwin, but he still cleared 1,000 yards for the fourth time in the last five seasons. He’s a surefire WR3 starter with WR2 upside. … The quickness with which third-round rookie Jalen McMillan claimed No. 3 receiver duties stood out in Bucs camp. McMillan will become a factor if Evans or Godwin goes down. … Cade Otton appeared on a whopping 97% of Tampa Bay’s 2023 offensive snaps but never earned priority-target treatment. He’s a low-ceiling TE2/3.

Score Prediction: Bucs 30, Commanders 17

Sunday Night Football

L.A. Rams @ Detroit

Team Totals: Lions 28.5, Rams 24

The Rams’ offense feels at risk of early-season collapse with LT Alaric Jackson opening the year on a two-game suspension, C Jonah Jackson (shoulder) having missed all of training camp, and RT Rob Havenstein (ankle) in question for Week 1. 36-year-old Matthew Stafford dealt with hamstring tightness in August, while Puka Nacua (knee) was rarely seen. Detroit’s defense is loaded up front with power-pig NT D.J. Reader added next to gap-shooter Alim McNeil. They’re flanked by DPOY candidate Aidan Hutchinson and talented reclamation project Marcus Davenport. … The extent of third-round rookie Blake Corum’s offensive role will reveal itself eventually, but for now I’m viewing him as a handcuff and breather back only behind HC Sean McVay heartthrob Kyren Williams. I’m counting on 15+ touches from Williams in the highest-totaled game of Week 1. He’s a surefire RB1.

The Lions went hard on offseason secondary upgrades, trading for former Bucs No. 1 CB Carlton Davis, then drafting Alabama CB Terrion Arnold in the first round and Missouri CB Ennis Rakestraw in the second. They also signed ex-Raiders CB Amik Robertson to cover the slot, moving stud sophomore DB Brian Branch to safety. Matchups and supporting cast don’t support monster Week 1 projections for Nacua or Cooper Kupp, but this game’s shootout potential and indoor setting render both quality WR2 plays in one of the NFL’s most narrowly distributed passing attacks. … Colby Parkinson is a single-game DFS sleeper slated to play nearly 100% of L.A.’s offensive snaps in McVay’s three-receiver, one-tight end offense. At a towering 6-foot-7, 252, Parkinson can be an inviting end-zone target.

I’m expecting a Lions offensive explosion at home beneath Ford Field’s dome against a Rams defense that lost Hall-of-Fame DT Aaron Donald and talent-maximizing DC Raheem Morris (Falcons) this offseason, then traded away team captain ILB Ernest Jones (Titans) and placed starting CB Darious Williams (hamstring) on I.R. at the end of training camp. This is a high-floor, high-ceiling spot for Jared Goff. … Even after missing two weeks of camp, Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring) resumed practicing in full and wasn’t even listed on Week 1’s injury report. Including playoffs, Gibbs has scored 14 TDs over his last 14 games. He’s an elite RB1 play against the Rams. … Brandon Thorn pegged Detroit’s offensive line as the NFL’s best, while David Montgomery finished 2023 with the NFL’s fourth-most red-zone carries (50). In Sunday night’s projected shootout, Montgomery is a strong bet to score.

Amon-Ra St. Brown tagged the Rams for 7/110/0 receiving in last January’s playoffs and should have no trouble carving up L.A.’s secondary again. Old and slow on the backend, the Rams placed starting CB Darious Williams (hamstring) on I.R. at the end of camp. … L.A.’s green-dot replacement for Jones is expected to be 30-year-old scrub Troy Reeder, who belongs on special teams. … As a 2023 rookie, Sam LaPorta ranked fifth among tight ends in targets (120), fourth in catches (86), fifth in yards (889), and first in TDs (10). Leaning on Reeder, special teams type ILB Christian Rozeboom, and physical but sluggish SS Kamren Curl to patrol the middle of the field, the Rams appear likely to stay vulnerable to tight ends all year. … The Lions cleared the deck for Jameson Williams to assume No. 2 WR duties, most notably allowing Josh Reynolds (Broncos) to flee without a fight. They even went so far as to keep just four wide receivers on their final 53-man roster. Against a talent-deficient Rams defense with Goff set up for success, Williams projects as an upside WR3 candidate. … Lions No. 3 WR Kalif Raymond is a single-game DFS sleeper in a scoring-friendly game.

Score Prediction: Lions 34, Rams 23

Editor’s Note: This Matchup was written by John Daigle, with input from Evan Silva.

Monday Night Football

New York Jets @ San Francisco

Team Totals: Jets 19.5, 49ers 24

Kyle Shanahan’s play-calling goes head-to-head with Jets HC Robert Saleh, who’s familiar with the organization’s day-to-day practices for his time there as DC (2017-2020); as if New York’s defense wasn’t already nightmare fuel for Brock Purdy after limiting opponents to 5.9 yards per attempt (third) and 5.0 yards per play (fourth). Disgruntled EDGE Haason Reddick’s holdout trickling into Monday night at the very least removes double-digit sacks in four consecutive years; Will McDonald IV logged 19% of defensive snaps in Year 1 and failed to add the 15 pounds he promised (at 235) ahead of camp. Even with LT Trent Williams in the mix, Purdy’s bull case stems entirely from Shanahan’s system. … Christian McCaffrey leads the league in carries (343), yards from scrimmage (2,478), total touchdowns (26), and first downs (134) since joining the Niners in Week 7 of the 2022 season and is “doing great” (per GM John Lynch) upon returning to practice from his August calf/Achilles scare despite the team’s signing of veteran castaway Matt Breida. Hampered by a quad injury during the postseason, the world has not seen CMC at full strength since December. His range of outcomes includes last year’s 21.9 per-week touches and/or ceding reps to backup RB Jordan Mason, who has exploded for 5.8 yards per touch (on 86 touches) since being drafted. Mason is a priority stash on managed rosters regardless of McCaffrey’s (supposed) health. For what it’s worth, we’re projecting fourth-rounder Isaac Guerendo for two carries off the bench.

26-year-old Brandon Aiyuk signed a four-year, $134 million extension 11 days before the season opener, bringing to light his conditioning at kickoff. Note that the Jets permitted the league’s fewest fantasy points to outside receivers. Aiyuk’s most recent 3.01 Yards Per Route Run (third) and career-high 15.6 points per game (WR17) remain good for WR3/4 production. … With 4.1 catches and 2.8 rushing attempts per game (including 17 touchdowns from scrimmage) the past two seasons, Deebo Samuel’s one-of-one alignment leaves him as the likeliest 49ers wideout to avoid starting CBs Sauce Gardner (Pro Football Focus’ No. 1 coverage CB) and Michael Carter II (No. 10) once the ball is snapped. Deebo’s team-high 27.5% target share from Purdy with his entire cast healthy (per Sports Info Solutions) leaves him as my favorite CPT option in one-game slates, ownership permitting. … George Kittle can never be ignored in top-heavy standalone contests given his ability to shatter fantasy football with the most overall TE1 spike weeks the last two years. Logically a fringe TE1 in season-long leagues for the matchup, Kittle’s career-high 84% route rate from last year is comforting on-field usage. … Rewarded with a two-year deal including $8.4 million guaranteed this spring, Jauan Jennings falls into three-wide sets after first-round rookie Ricky Pearsall was placed on the NFI list for suffering a gunshot wound through the chest. San Francisco’s 39.3% usage of 11 personnel (31st) pours cold water on Jennings’ usability outside of Showdown.

The QB26 in points per game in his last full season, Aaron Rodgers’ matchup-based outlook is admittedly bleak given the combined projected volume between the 49ers (25th in drives per game in 2023) and a Nathaniel Hackett-led offense (third-fewest drives per game with Rodgers in Green Bay). Having said that, the Niners remain littered with impactful departures ( EDGE Arik Armstead) and injuries (DT Kalia Davis, EDGE Drake Jackson, LB Dre Greenlaw), not to mention the unquantifiable spite in the 40-year-old’s heart for being passed on at No. 1 overall in the 2005 NFL Draft. I expect Rodgers (with limited passing volume) and Purdy to combine for two touchdowns or less. … Breece Hall finished as the RB6 in points per game behind an offensive line that created 2.5 yards before contact per attempt (14th). All-Pro LT Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses, and John Simpson provide an upgrade opposite San Francisco’s aforementioned ravished trenches. Hall’s upside here rivals Saquon Barkley’s Week 1 performance from scrimmage (26/132/3). All reports out of camp suggest fourth-rounder Braelon Allen (6-foot-1/235) won the team’s No. 2 job outright.

Targeted on 24.6% (16th) of his routes sans Rodgers, Garrett Wilson unsurprisingly averaged 3.8 fewer points per game than expected (per Pro Football Focus’ Expected Points model) from the machination of Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian, and Tim Boyle. I’m forecasting a 30+% target share for Wilson in this spot given San Francisco’s impact secondary injuries — Ambry Thomas (broken forearm), Talanoa Hufanga (knee) — and the negligent competition behind him. … Big Mike Williams “is gonna be kind of on Breece’s schedule” following his torn ACL from Week 3. For reference, Hall logged 31% (Week 1) and 34% (Week 2) of the team’s offensive snaps to open 2023. Mike’s box-score ceiling is similar to Christian Watson’s performance from Friday night (3/13/1). … New York appeased their quarterback by gifting Allen Lazard the most guaranteed money ($22 million) at his position last year then proceeded to healthy-scratch him following a career-low 3.5 targets per game. For single-game DFS slates, note that Lazard walks into two-wide sets by default and soaked up career-highs in target share (17.8%) and per-week targets (9.7) the last time he played with Rodgers in 2022. … Third-rounder Malachi Corley (5-foot-11/215) dropped the ball in the preseason to special teams extraordinaire Xavier Gipson, who amassed 11.2 yards per catch (on 3.6 weekly targets) over his last 10 games. If active, Corley “can contribute immediately as a screen/gadget” player. His manufactured touches have some appeal in large-field slates. … Tyler Conklin’s career-high 36.5 yards per game included one top-12 finish. Still, his on-paper matchup offers a high reception floor against this front seven, which only permitted three receiving scores (tied for second) to TEs in 2023.

Score Prediction: Jets 21, 49ers 16