www.marktreichel.com https://www.linkedin.com/in/mark-treichel/ NCUA Predictions: What Will the Do in 2025? Treichel: [00:00:00] Hey everyone, this is Mark Treichel with another episode of With Flying Colors. Today I am flying solo and I am calling this podcast something like what I expect from NCUA in 2025. In preparing for today's show, I took some notes going back and looking at NCUA's Agenda from their board action taken in 2025 and am gleaning based on the Trump administration and the Helpman leadership. What may or what may not happen in 2025 compared to 2024. When you go back and look at 2025. They had canceled two board meetings. So that was one takeaway. They canceled the March, 2024 board meeting, which was the first time in a long time that that had happened. And they canceled the June, 2024 meeting. So this was under then [00:01:00] chairman Todd Harper, who is now a board member at large, although he came close to being named vice chair, and you can check out some of my past podcasts for discussions on why that may have blown up anyway. It things continue to blow up at the board level, but I'll get to that here shortly. All right. They canceled 2 board meetings and they held for N. C. U. S. I. F. share insurance fund briefings. I report on those quite a bit here and on linked in because that's 1 of the few windows to generic camel code ratings. You can see when camel code ratings go up and they did 4 of those. in 2024. I'm expecting they'll do four of those in 2025. They did one cyber security update briefing and they did a new charter update and briefing and tip to what I might say in the future. I think there will be more briefings because I don't think the board will be acting on much because I don't think the board [00:02:00] is currently getting along because of the kerfuffle on NSF and overdraft fees. All right. So other things they did they did a proposed succession planning rule and a final succession planning rule. They did an incentive based compensation proposal, which I think will go nowhere in 2025. That was put out there because Biden's administration required it from all. Banking agencies and under the Trump administration there will be less or zero regulation. And I don't see them wanting to put proposals in on incentives. If you'd know what I mean. In July, there was a loan rate ceiling approval to. re approve utilization of the 18 percent rate. That's what they do every time. The trade associations come out saying you should allow that to go up or you should make it based on variability. If NCOA was ever going to raise it, it would have been last year and or the year before. They [00:03:00] didn't seize that opportunity because they thought it would have been egregiously harmful to credit unions and credit union members. I disagree with that, but they will vote on that again because they have to vote on it and they will likely just do what they've done umpteen years in a row, which is reaffirmed the 18%. I expect that to happen in July again. All right. What else is going to be happening? Potentially, they did have a board appeal in August. By the way, they typically don't have open board meetings in August. That was a closed a closed item where a credit union appealed something without revealing what I know relative to that. That was a field of membership appeal. There was a fair hiring and banking proposal, which doesn't need to repeat in 2025. They simplified the insurance rules. And then when you get close to the end of the year, what happens at the end of the year and CUA approves their budget. But before they approve their budget, they do a budget briefing. A little [00:04:00] bit of history on the budget briefings. The budget briefing started when I was the deputy executive director and they were started by Dennis Dollar. And I remember saying to that executive director, Len Skiles, if you do this, Make sure you want to do it and it was for transparency. But once you start something, it's very difficult to stop it. And I'll get to that and why I'm making that point. I'll get to it now, but I'll refer to it again. So NCOA did stop it. I believe it was under the Matt's administration and the trade associations got upset because that was their opportunity. One of their opportunities to show value saying your budget's too high. Here's why we think it's too high. And through assistance from Senator Mark Warner in Virginia, they were able to get the Federal Credit Union Act proposed, requiring NCUA to do a budget briefing. They are required to do a budget briefing. I believe they will do a budget briefing. I'm not so sure they will do a budget. They're not [00:05:00] required to do a budget, and they are required to do a budget briefing. They're not required to do a budget, and that's because there is a two year budget. So I'll get to that and why I think that they may not do a budget when we walk through what I think will happen in totality in 2025. The NCOA approved their annual performance plan, which is linked to their strategic plan, already in January. That was one of the last things they did prior to Hauptmann taking over. So they don't need to do that annual plan, but they do need to do another strategic plan, and that would be due by the end of 2025 for the years 2026 through 2030. Will they do that? We will see. All right. So when you look at what is going to happen and what I predict will happen in 2024, that's a little bit about what happened. What I'm predicting in 2024 is that the theme of canceling board meetings will continue. They, as I mentioned, they canceled March and June. I'm [00:06:00] expecting that they may cancel April or May. Or June or July, I don't believe they're going to have enough briefings to keep an agenda full. I don't believe they're going to agree on enough things because of the arguments they're having about about NSF fees and overdraft fees being reported by over a billion dollar credit unions. There's two approaches here. Kyle Hauptman canceled and changed the. Way that billion dollar plus credit unions were going were reporting for three quarters on NSFs and overdrafts saying that it's overkill and it's onerous on the credit unions, et cetera, et cetera, and that they would be looking at that during part of the examinations and then after he announced that at GAC and then. Board member Harper and board member Otsuka came out with their own press releases, and I understand they did a full court press on [00:07:00] Capitol Hill on the topic and came out saying that what's wrong with transparency? There should be transparency here. Why are you stopping something that was started and that credit unions had been providing and that's bad for members? So that's the nexus I wanted to say where I mentioned with Dennis Dollar that when he started the budget briefings, I thought they would never be stopped. And it's hard to stop something when you do. What happened? Debbie Matt stopped the budget briefings, and then lo and behold, the Federal Credit Union Act was changed and INSU 8 was required. to do that. So at some point, whether it's when the next time there's a D in the White House or there's a D in running the Dems have control of Congress. And the White House, you're going to see more on the fee situation. You're going to see NCOA go back to collecting this data. Will it be in 4 years? Will it be in 8 years? Will it be sometime sooner than that? [00:08:00] My guess is not before the four year period. I can't see how it went flip floppi...…
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