A friend of mine recently recommended that I read through articles from the journal International Security, in order to learn more about international relations, national security, and political science. I've really enjoyed it so far, and I think it's helped me have a clearer picture of how IR academics think about stuff, especially the core power …

This is the best sociological account of the AI x-risk reduction efforts of the last ~decade that I've seen. I encourage folks to engage with its critique and propose better strategies going forward. Here's the opening ~20% of the post. I encourage reading it all. In recent decades, a growing coalition has emerged to oppose the development of artif…

Hi all I've been hanging around the rationalist-sphere for many years now, mostly writing about transhumanism, until things started to change in 2016 after my Wikipedia writing habit shifted from writing up cybercrime topics, through to actively debunking the numerous dark web urban legends. After breaking into what I believe to be the most success…

This is the full text of a post from "The Obsolete Newsletter," a Substack that I write about the intersection of capitalism, geopolitics, and artificial intelligence. I’m a freelance journalist and the author of a forthcoming book called Obsolete: Power, Profit, and the Race to build Machine Superintelligence. Consider subscribing to stay up to da…

Ultimately, I don’t want to solve complex problems via laborious, complex thinking, if we can help it. Ideally, I'd want to basically intuitively follow the right path to the answer quickly, with barely any effort at all. For a few months I've been experimenting with the "How Could I have Thought That Thought Faster?" concept, originally described …

Once upon a time, in ye olden days of strange names and before google maps, seven friends needed to figure out a driving route from their parking lot in San Francisco (SF) down south to their hotel in Los Angeles (LA). The first friend, Alice, tackled the “central bottleneck” of the problem: she figured out that they probably wanted to take the I-5…

Summary In this post, we explore different ways of understanding and measuring malevolence and explain why individuals with concerning levels of malevolence are common enough, and likely enough to become and remain powerful, that we expect them to influence the trajectory of the long-term future, including by increasing both x-risks and s-risks. Fo…

I’m not a natural “doomsayer.” But unfortunately, part of my job as an AI safety researcher is to think about the more troubling scenarios. I’m like a mechanic scrambling last-minute checks before Apollo 13 takes off. If you ask for my take on the situation, I won’t comment on the quality of the in-flight entertainment, or describe how beautiful th…

Over the past year and half, I've had numerous conversations about the risks we describe in Gradual Disempowerment. (The shortest useful summary of the core argument is: To the extent human civilization is human-aligned, most of the reason for the alignment is that humans are extremely useful to various social systems like the economy, and states, …

This is a link post.Full version on arXiv | X Executive summary AI risk scenarios usually portray a relatively sudden loss of human control to AIs, outmaneuvering individual humans and human institutions, due to a sudden increase in AI capabilities, or a coordinated betrayal. However, we argue that even an incremental increase in AI capabilities, w…

This post should not be taken as a polished recommendation to AI companies and instead should be treated as an informal summary of a worldview. The content is inspired by conversations with a large number of people, so I cannot take credit for any of these ideas. For a summary of this post, see the threat on X. Many people write opinions about how …

This is a personal post and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of other members of Apollo Research. Many other people have talked about similar ideas, and I claim neither novelty nor credit. Note that this reflects my median scenario for catastrophe, not my median scenario overall. I think there are plausible alternative scenarios where AI de…

I (and co-authors) recently put out "Alignment Faking in Large Language Models" where we show that when Claude strongly dislikes what it is being trained to do, it will sometimes strategically pretend to comply with the training objective to prevent the training process from modifying its preferences. If AIs consistently and robustly fake alignment…

Summary and Table of Contents The goal of this post is to discuss the so-called “sharp left turn”, the lessons that we learn from analogizing evolution to AGI development, and the claim that “capabilities generalize farther than alignment” … and the competing claims that all three of those things are complete baloney. In particular, Section 1 talks…

(Many of these ideas developed in conversation with Ryan Greenblatt) In a shortform, I described some different levels of resources and buy-in for misalignment risk mitigations that might be present in AI labs: *The “safety case” regime.* Sometimes people talk about wanting to have approaches to safety such that if all AI developers followed these …

“Anomalous”, “glitch”, or “unspeakable” tokens in an LLM are those that induce bizarre behavior or otherwise don’t behave like regular text. The SolidGoldMagikarp saga is pretty much essential context, as it documents the discovery of this phenomenon in GPT-2 and GPT-3. But, as far as I was able to tell, nobody had yet attempted to search for these…

This is the abstract and introduction of our new paper, with some discussion of implications for AI Safety at the end. Authors: Jan Betley*, Xuchan Bao*, Martín Soto*, Anna Sztyber-Betley, James Chua, Owain Evans (*Equal Contribution). Abstract We study behavioral self-awareness — an LLM's ability to articulate its behaviors without requiring in-co…

The Cake Imagine that I want to bake a chocolate cake, and my sole goal in my entire lightcone and extended mathematical universe is to bake that cake. I care about nothing else. If the oven ends up a molten pile of metal ten minutes after the cake is done, if the leftover eggs are shattered and the leftover milk spilled, that's fine. Baking that c…

This post offers an accessible model of psychology of character-trained LLMs like Claude. Epistemic Status This is primarily a phenomenological model based on extensive interactions with LLMs, particularly Claude. It's intentionally anthropomorphic in cases where I believe human psychological concepts lead to useful intuitions. Think of it as close…

This is a link post.This is a blog post reporting some preliminary work from the Anthropic Alignment Science team, which might be of interest to researchers working actively in this space. We'd ask you to treat these results like those of a colleague sharing some thoughts or preliminary experiments at a lab meeting, rather than a mature paper. We r…

One hope for keeping existential risks low is to get AI companies to (successfully) make high-assurance safety cases: structured and auditable arguments that an AI system is very unlikely to result in existential risks given how it will be deployed.[1] Concretely, once AIs are quite powerful, high-assurance safety cases would require making a thoro…

Cross-posted from Telescopic Turnip As we all know, humans are terrible at building butterflies. We can make a lot of objectively cool things like nuclear reactors and microchips, but we still can't create a proper artificial insect that flies, feeds, and lays eggs that turn into more butterflies. That seems like evidence that butterflies are incre…

This is a link post.A story I wrote about living through the transition to utopia. This is the one story that I've put the most time and effort into; it charts a course from the near future all the way to the distant stars. --- First published: January 19th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Rz4ijbeKgPAaedg3n/the-gentle-romance --- Narra…

This is a link post.Present alongside President Trump: Sam Altman Larry Ellison (Oracle executive chairman and CTO) Masayoshi Son (Softbank CEO who believes he was born to realize ASI) President Trump: What we want to do is we want to keep [AI datacenters] in this country. China is a competitor and others are competitors. President Trump: I'm going…

The AI Control Agenda, in its own words: … we argue that AI labs should ensure that powerful AIs are controlled. That is, labs should make sure that the safety measures they apply to their powerful models prevent unacceptably bad outcomes, even if the AIs are misaligned and intentionally try to subvert those safety measures. We think no fundamental…